How to layout the next bull market
Author: @jessewldn | Plain Language Blockchain
In the past two years, the crypto industry has entered a period that can be called the 'consolidation phase'. During this time, the industry has focused more on optimization rather than 'creating something from nothing'. This consolidation and optimization is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
1) Infrastructure
2) Application Scenarios
3) Leading Winners
01
Trends in Optimization and Integration of the Crypto Industry in 2024
1) Optimization: Infrastructure in 2024
The maturity of infrastructure means that crypto technology is no longer a bottleneck for industry development. This achievement comes from a large number of technical optimizations rather than disruptive new architectures. These optimizations perhaps for the first time enable the crypto industry to meet the conditions for a 'bull market', specifically including:
· More abundant block space;
· Development toolchains are becoming increasingly refined;
· User transaction fees are nearly zero or completely waived;
· The complexity of using wallets has been significantly reduced;
· The user experience of on-chain applications is gradually becoming comparable to consumer-grade products of Web2.
Currently, the abstraction of infrastructure, performance improvements, and increased reliability have just entered the 12 to 18 months. For example, the development of Ethereum L2, the stability improvements of Solana, and the application of wallet abstraction technology in real production environments have seen development but have not yet reached optimal levels.
2) Consolidation: Application Scenarios and Leading Winners in 2024
Two key application scenarios have gradually matured: speculation and stablecoins. These two scenarios have almost run through the entire development process of the crypto industry:
· Bitcoin (2009) is the earliest speculative asset in the crypto industry;
· Stablecoins are one of the earliest token applications (USDT started in 2014).
Today, these two scenarios have reached new peaks due to the optimization of infrastructure.
· The peak performance of speculation: Memecoins
Memecoins are the ultimate embodiment of speculative behavior, and their creation and trading have become extremely convenient and low-cost.
· The seamless connection of stablecoins
Tools like Bridge have made the issuance and trading of stablecoins unprecedentedly efficient.
3) The Stronger Become Stronger Effect of Leading Winners
As the industry develops, past leading winners are further consolidating their positions, and their advantages continue to expand. These winners include:
· Public Chains: Solana and Ethereum;
· Wallets: Phantom;
· DEX: Uniswap and Raydium.
These platforms have benefited immensely from the growth of stablecoins and speculative activities, and they can quickly adapt to market hotspots as well as speculative games like memecoins and NFTs.
02
The Next Phase of the Crypto Industry
As the infrastructure bottleneck gradually fades, the other two major bottlenecks faced by the industry are also gradually becoming apparent. These two bottlenecks have largely driven the current phase of consolidation and optimization and hindered further innovative breakthroughs from 'zero to one'.
1) Bottleneck One: Infrastructure Issues
The infrastructure bottleneck is gradually dissolving. Technical optimization rather than breakthrough architectural innovation has brought significant progress to the industry. Today, the available block space of the blockchain is abundant, tools are maturing, transaction fees are nearing zero, wallet usage has become simpler, and some on-chain applications can match the consumer experience of Web2.
2) Bottleneck Two: Hostile and Uncertain Regulatory Environment
The second bottleneck to be solved is the unfriendly and uncertain regulatory environment. However, this issue seems to be gradually easing. Trump's administration has given hope for clearer regulatory rules for the crypto industry in the United States, clearing out bad projects and helping positive participants in the industry to grow.
With the improvement of infrastructure performance and the regulatory environment becoming clearer, the industry is about to welcome a breakthrough in the third bottleneck - the talent issue.
3) Bottleneck Three: Talent Shortage
Since 2022, the number of new talents entering the crypto industry has been at a bottleneck. This is understandable, as negative news and an uncertain regulatory environment pose significant personal risks for founders. However, the lack of new talent directly leads to a stagnation in industry innovation from 'nothing to something'.
I believe this trend will begin to reverse next year through the following two steps:
A. Leaders in the consolidation phase will continue to expand their advantages. The success of these leading projects may exceed everyone's expectations. For example, Polymarket has proven this during this election cycle, and we will see more similar cases in the future. As on-chain applications gradually gain mainstream acceptance (whether among consumers or institutions), we will see:
· Startups will go public;
· More projects will issue tokens;
· The societal expectations for the influence of the crypto industry will be readjusted.
This is the first step to encourage a new generation of developers to delve into the crypto industry. Only by attracting more new blood can the industry usher in a true next breakthrough.
B. A new generation of entrepreneurs will redefine the industry based on first principles. These new entrepreneurs will no longer be constrained by traditional infrastructure and outdated ideas. They will innovate based on clear rules, focusing on 'ownership' as the core, to bring new products and experiences to users.
03
Future Outlook: Finding Stability Through Validation
Although the crypto industry remains volatile, with the arrival of new rules, new talents, and new ideas, we hope that in the next five years, we will be able to clearly understand whether the crypto industry can move beyond speculation and stablecoins to bring more real value.
'Ownership' may become a core element of new products and networks. By establishing deep connections with users through economic incentives, these networks will achieve faster growth. Validation through breakthrough applications will become an important way to reduce long-term volatility.
The crypto market in 2025 still holds great expectations. Under the momentum of Bitcoin continuously breaking new highs, which track will be the first to ignite the 2025 bull market? Feel free to vote for the track you are optimistic about:
To vote, please go to the official WeChat account of 'Plain Language Blockchain'
Original Title: Beyond Speculation and Stablecoins: Crypto's Next Phase?
Original Link: https://x.com/jessewldn/status/1860005233608323099
Original Author: @jessewldn
Translation: Plain Language Blockchain
Article Link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/11/5555.html
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/K345Bqgighd42Ln-D8h7Yw
