Exploring the trajectory of bull market cycles, revealing the growth context of altcoins

The ever-changing landscape of the crypto market presents investors with distinct trajectories in each bull and bear cycle. From the strong rise in 2021 to the new round of increase in 2023-2024, everything has a trace to follow. Below is a summary and interpretation of key nodes, hot sectors, and future layouts in each bull market.

Historical review: The context of the three phases of the 2021 bull market

Phase one: BTC leading the way, with ETH following up (October 2020 - May 2021)

BTC and ETH trends

In October 2020, BTC broke through first, starting the first wave of rise, while ETH only followed with fluctuations.

Phase two (from late December 2020 to February 2021), BTC gradually adjusted, while ETH entered the main rising wave.

Phase three (March 2021 to May 19), ETH continued to explode, and altcoin sectors welcomed their shining moment, followed by an overall market adjustment.

Performance of altcoins

Platform coins (such as BNB, HT) lead the rise, and the Meme sector rises with the influence of DOGE and SHIB.

Public chain sectors (such as SOL, ADA) and the metaverse (such as AXS, MANA) saw significant rises in the second phase.

DEFI sector and established coins (such as ETC) gained opportunities for rebound in the third phase.

Summary

The first half of 2021 saw a broad rise driven by liquidity easing, with hotspots concentrated in public chains, Meme, gaming, and other sectors. However, in the second half, funds began to diverge, with significant differences in performance across different sectors.

2023-2024: Characteristics and opportunities of a new bull market

Main rising wave phase: BTC and ETH running parallel (October 2023 - March 2024)

BTC and ETH rise together

During this phase, the trends of BTC and ETH are highly overlapping, and the speculation on BTC spot ETF has acted as a catalyst.

New sector projects such as AI, L2, and modular blockchain have also become hotspots.

Comparison of sector performances

Public chains and Meme lead the rise: established public chains (such as ETH, SOL) and new public chains (such as SUI, TIA) performed brightly; Meme projects (such as PEPE, FLOKI) continued the heat of 2021.

AI and gaming: The AI sector, such as ARKM and WLD, has performed well; the gaming sector has weaker gains, with funds more concentrated in other hotspots.

L2 and infrastructure: STRK, METIS, and others performed well, but overall gains were limited.

Support from the macro background

The pause in interest rate hikes in the second half of 2023 and expectations of rate cuts in 2024 provide emotional support for the market. Although funds are limited, hotspots continue to emerge, especially public chains and Meme that align with macro narratives.

Outlook for 2024 and beyond: How to seize the altcoin market?

Characteristics of the current market situation

In early 2024, BTC and mainstream public chains (such as SOL) lead the market surge, with the Meme sector experiencing an initial explosion.

ETH is about to exert force, and the opportunity for a universal rise in altcoins is beginning to appear.

Sectors to pay attention to in the future

Priority sectors: public chains, Meme, and L2 projects on ETH.

Potential sectors: AI, modular blockchain, RWA (real-world assets), and other emerging narratives are worth attention.

Cautious sectors: The inflow of funds into gaming and infrastructure projects is relatively small, requiring attention to changes in market liquidity.

How to time and choose projects?

Combination of macro and sector narratives

U.S. macro policy is key: the timing of rate cuts and liquidity injections determines the overall market trend.

The hotspots in mainstream media and project selections by exchanges like Binance are important criteria for judging sector popularity.

The golden rule of timing

The rise of altcoins usually begins after the breakthroughs of BTC and ETH. The current phase is suitable for gradually laying out in popular sectors.

Judgment of specific projects

For newly listed secondary market projects, choose popular sector coins listed on major exchanges like Binance.

Public chains and Meme narratives remain timeless, and hot projects are worth long-term tracking.

Conclusion: Grasping market rhythms and welcoming opportunities in 2024

Every bull market stems from the release of liquidity and the overlay of market hotspots. In 2024, as the macro environment turns to easing, the crypto market will once again welcome significant opportunities. Whether laying out in popular sectors or focusing on emerging narratives, grasping market rhythms and closely following hotspot trends will be key to the next wealth code.