BTC Trading Analysis and Strategy Recommendations
Technical Analysis 📈
1. Candlestick and Trend
Weekly candles show four consecutive bullish closes, the overall bullish trend remains unchanged, but significant pressure at the 100k psychological level, caution is advised in the short term. Daily chart shows a high position doji, with MACD and volume diverging, indicating potential risk of a trend reversal in the short term. The 4-hour MACD trend is similar to the rise in September, and overly bullish sentiment is not advisable in the short term.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
- Resistance Level: 100k psychological level (strong short-term pressure).
- Support Levels:
- Support 1: 96,000 (weekend low).
- Support 2: Channel lower boundary + MA60 resonance support.
- Support 3: 90,000-92,000 (concentration zone + previous high point reverse support).
- Support 4: 86,000-88,000 (previous high consolidation platform low + volume dense area, key defense level).
3. Pattern Prediction
- M-top possibility: If the price pushes towards 100k again and faces resistance, be cautious of the M-top formation.
- Channel Trend: If the price falls back to the channel lower boundary and finds support, it may continue to oscillate upwards around the channel.
4. Indicator Signals
- KD Indicator: Approaching overbought area, there is still slight upward space in the short term, but caution is advised for high-level pullbacks.
- BIAS Indicator: Medium to long-term turning downwards, short-term flattening, indicating a need for correction.
Trading Strategy Recommendations 💡
1. Spot Strategy
- Gradual accumulation of long positions: Buy-in range: 96,000, 90,000, 87,000 in batches, target average price 91,000.
- Take profit target: Around 95,000-100,000.
- Stop-loss suggestion: Below 86,000 (if breaking the key defense level, need to stop-loss and exit).
2. Short-term Contract Strategy
- Short position speculation opportunity:
- If the price approaches the 100k threshold and faces resistance, consider trying a light short position, targeting 96,000-95,000, with a stop-loss set above 100k.
- Long position strategy:
- If the price falls back to the support area of 90,000-92,000 and stabilizes, consider trying a long position, targeting 95,000-100,000, with a stop-loss set below 89,000.
3. Risk Control
Spot trading suggests gradual accumulation, light position operation for contracts, avoiding heavy chasing and panic selling.
Logic Summary and Precautions 🧠
The weekly bullish trend remains unchanged, with USDT market cap growth and favorable policies providing long-term support for BTC. However, the short-term pressure at the 100k threshold is significant, with daily and 4-hour indicators diverging, indicating a risk of pullback. The short-term focus is on 1-3 days, while the medium-term attention is on movements within 1-2 weeks.
