If you want to cross the Yellow River, the ice blocks the river, and you will ascend the Taihang Mountains covered in snow.
Hello everyone, I am Trader Gege. I have already discussed some thoughts about Bitcoin in the previous article, and I would like to add some more ideas for everyone to exchange. Today's article is merely a personal prediction; since it concerns a long cycle, its validity is uncertain. I have mentioned before that the market's long cycle is chaotic; we can only follow the pipeline instead of digging it in advance. Today is just an estimate of the general trend, and it counts as digging the pipeline in advance, so take it as a reference and read it casually.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is at 99,660, just a step away from 100,000 dollars, and there is just over a month until 2025. This makes me wonder, could 99,600 be the high point of 2024? If it breaks six digits, does that mean the entire market will be in a boiling state, and social media will start to hype it up again? It cannot be denied.
Let's reverse analyze from the previous bull market. Although this bull market is different from the past, some things are still worth referencing. Observing from the bull-bear cycle, the previous bull market's high point was around 19,000 dollars, while the last bull market's high point was around 69,000 dollars. During the last bull market, after breaking through 19,000 dollars, the pullback did not go below this price. So, following this line of thought, if this bull market continues, it should not fall below 69,000 dollars during the bull market.
Another point is that the bottom of the bear market in 2022 was around 15,000 dollars. Following this line of thought, if this bull market ends and enters a bear market, the bottom could be around 50,000 dollars. I mention this because it has little reference value for the current market, but if we extend the cycle, it can be a reference for spot players, especially for those who want to enter the market for Bitcoin at this stage. They should think more about the current price for entry; the potential returns are limited. Even if you just want to make a small profit, don’t be too anxious.
Because currently, whether in terms of technology or sentiment, I personally believe the market needs a pullback. The continuous weekly upward trend has a technical need for correction, and this wave of over 30,000 dollars in gains needs to stop and rest for a while. Therefore, in the short term, within 1-3 weeks, there should be at least a pullback of around 10,000 dollars, with an estimated price around 85,000-83,000. After the adjustment ends, there will be another surge to break the 100,000 dollar mark, continuing upward to let the market go crazy, and then a major pullback will occur near 120,000-130,000 dollars. This set of market changes is expected to last until around mid-2025, and there may be one last bull tail market in the second half of the year, after which it will enter a bear market adjustment cycle.
This is just a prediction. How the market moves, we need to watch as we go along. The passing of the ETF, along with the enthusiastic embrace of the crypto community by Americans, is a good thing. Of course, there must be some conspiracy behind it. Regardless, we need to manage our risk according to our situation and follow the market to benefit. The short-term bullish risk for Bitcoin is relatively high; for friends who are doing trend trading, you can focus on the 85,000-83,000 range for long positions. If it stops falling in this range, you can enter the market; for short positions, you can focus on the 98,000-99,000 range to test the waters. Be sure to plan your position reasonably; at the current price, the target for trend trades basically starts from 10,000, so the entry range is large, and you should observe more before taking action.
Suggestions are for reference only. Manage risk when entering the market. Profit and stop-loss spaces should be controlled by yourself. Specific strategies should be consulted based on the current market situation.
Alright, friends, we have to say goodbye until next time. I wish you all the best in your trading and a smooth journey in the crypto world! More real-time suggestions are sent internally. Today's brief update ends here. For more real-time advice on Bitcoin, find Gege.
Written by/ I am Trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you to rise again.
