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1. Price forecast (short-term, medium-term):
Short-term forecast (1-3 months):
Current price $3,398.17 is held above key EMAs:
• EMA 20 ($2,656.99);
• EMA 100 ($2,095.81).
The price is also above the Ichimoku cloud ($2,843.09 upper boundary, $2,588.21 lower boundary), confirming the strength of the upward trend. RSI at 59.29 shows neutral strength with the possibility of further growth.
The main resistance remains at $4,093.92 (0 Fibonacci). Breaking this level will open targets:
• $4,778.61 (-0.27);
• $5,689.13 (-0.62);
• $6,666.84 (-1.0).
Medium-term forecast (3-12 months):
The medium-term bullish trend will remain as long as the price stays above $2,843.09 (upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud) and $2,807.46 (0.5 Fibonacci). If the level of $4,093.92 is broken, the price will continue to rise to levels:
• $5,689.13 (-0.62);
• $6,666.84 (-1.0).
If the price does not hold above $2,807.46 (0.5 Fibonacci), a bearish scenario is likely with a correction to levels:
• $2,498.71 (0.62);
• $2,280.01 (0.705);
• $2,061.31 (0.79).
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2. Support and resistance levels:
• Support:
o $2,843.09 (upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud) — nearest support zone.
o $2,807.46 (0.5 Fibonacci) — key support for the current upward trend.
o $2,498.71 (0.62 Fibonacci) — strong support zone in case of correction.
o $2,280.01 (0.705 Fibonacci) — main support when deepening the decline.
o $2,061.31 (0.79 Fibonacci) — the last level before a critical decline.
• Resistance:
o $4,093.92 (0 Fibonacci) — key resistance to confirm upward momentum.
o $4,778.61 (-0.27 Fibonacci) — first target upon breakout upwards.
o $5,689.13 (-0.62 Fibonacci) — strong resistance.
o $6,666.84 (-1.0 Fibonacci) — main medium-term target.
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3. Long and short scenarios with probability assessment:
🟢 Long scenario:
Probability 70% — The price is above key support levels $2,807.46 (0.5 Fibonacci) and the Ichimoku cloud ($2,843.09). Holding above these zones confirms the bullish trend. Breaking the level of $4,093.92 will open the way to targets $4,778.61, $5,689.13, and $6,666.84.
🛑 Short scenario:
Probability 30% — A bearish scenario is possible upon a bounce from $4,093.92 or breaking down $2,807.46. In this case, targets are located at $2,498.71 and $2,280.01.
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⚠️ Overall conclusion:
ETH demonstrates a strong upward trend, consolidating above key levels $2,807.46 (0.5 Fibonacci) and the Ichimoku cloud ($2,843.09). Breaking $4,093.92 will confirm growth with targets up to $6,666.84 (-1.0). Losing support at $2,807.46 will strengthen the bearish scenario with a possible decline to $2,498.71 or lower.
