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Price trend
According to data from Zhongcai Network, on November 24, 2024, at 9:42 AM, the price of Bitcoin was $98128, a decrease of $249 from the previous day, with a drop of 0.25%. The highest price of the day was $98745, and the lowest price was $97136.
Technical analysis
Candlestick patterns: From the candlestick chart, Bitcoin's price shows a fluctuating trend at high levels, with multiple candlesticks featuring long upper shadows, indicating heavy selling pressure from above, possibly due to main players taking profits.
Moving averages: The trend indicator EMA shows that the current price has fallen below EMA7 and is approaching EMA30. If it cannot find effective support near EMA30, it may further test EMA120.
MACD indicator: The 4-hour MACD fast and slow lines continue to decline, with green bars expanding, indicating that bearish strength is increasing in the short term.
RSI indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from the overbought zone and is currently in the neutral zone, but there is a trend of continuing downward, which also means that the upward momentum in the market has weakened in the short term.
Market sentiment and capital flow
Market divergence intensifies: The trading volume significantly increased on the 22nd and 23rd, especially during the correction process after the surge on the 21st, indicating an intensification of market divergence. Recently, the trading volume has decreased, and market fears may be digested over time.
Main players taking profits: A clear correction trend formed between the 21st and 23rd at the daily level, with gradually lower highs. Combined with the long upper shadow of the candlestick, it can be determined that the main players took profits near 99500, which triggered this wave of correction.
Short-term trend prediction
Support and resistance levels: Currently, the nearest support level below is around 97500. If the price can find support and bounce back here, it is expected to challenge upper resistance levels like 98400 again. If it falls below 97500, the next support level may be at 96000, or even lower at 94500.
Operational suggestions: Some analysis suggests that if the overall trend remains unchanged, all pullbacks are seen as opportunities to short. Therefore, consider placing long positions near support levels, but with proper stop-loss measures. For example, go long at positions like 96000 or 94500, with a stop-loss set at 94000 and a target at 99000. Short positions can be set at 99000 or 100000, with a stop-loss at 101500 and a target at 98000.
Long-term trend influencing factors
Halving expectation: Bitcoin will undergo halving in 2024. Historically, within a year after Bitcoin halving, the price usually experiences a significant rise, as halving reduces Bitcoin's supply, thereby pushing up prices under constant demand.
Institutional investors entering: An increasing number of institutional investors are incorporating Bitcoin into their portfolios, bringing new funds and recognition to the Bitcoin market, which positively impacts Bitcoin's long-term value.
Macroeconomic environment: The ongoing global inflation may drive investors to regard Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, further pushing up its price. However, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, such as the possibility of a global economic recession, may suppress the rise in Bitcoin prices.
Regulatory policies: Some countries are developing clearer regulatory frameworks for Bitcoin, which will eliminate uncertainty and facilitate institutional investors' entry. However, regulatory risks still exist, as governments may take measures to restrict or ban the use of Bitcoin, which could have a significant impact on its price.
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