A quick overview of important events this week (11/17-11/23)
Bitcoin News: Bitcoin price approaches $100,000, market value "surpasses New Taiwan Dollar", becoming the world's 12th largest currency.
The Fed's rate cut progress: Nomura Securities predicts that the Fed will suspend rate cuts in December and the interest rate will drop to 3.75% in 2025; Morgan Stanley predicts: By mid-2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield will drop to 3.75%, with a 75 basis point rate cut in the first half of 2025.
BTC strategic reserve: US think tanks and Chinese official media criticized the inability to solve the US debt problem; the Polish presidential candidate promised to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve after being elected; US lawmakers proposed selling Federal Reserve gold in exchange for 1 million Bitcoin reserves.
MicroStrategy: BTC holdings are worth $26 billion, with assets exceeding IBM and Nike. Citron, a big short, said that the valuation deviated from the fundamentals and shorted MicroStrategy.
Regulation and taxation: SEC Chairman will resign in January next year; the U.S. Financial Regulatory Authority has added a special area for crypto assets; Japan has reduced the cryptocurrency profit tax to 20%, and Taiwan plans to introduce tax audit measures.
Trump: Nominates Bitcoin fan Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce; nominates John F. Kennedy Jr., who publicly supports Bitcoin, as Secretary of Health and Human Services; plans to establish a cryptocurrency advisory committee to help BTC become a strategic reserve.
Market heat: Solana usage surpasses Ethereum for the first time; Chris Burniske, who calls for SOL, "starts to be bullish" on ETH.
This week's trading market data changes
Sentiment and sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
This week's market sentiment indicator rose from 90 (Extreme Greed) to 94 (Extreme Greed), and was in the (Extreme Greed) range for the entire week.
2. Funding rate heat map
This week, the highest Bitcoin funding rate reached 47.97% and the lowest was 7.21%, and bullish sentiment remained strong.
The funding rate heat map shows the changing trends of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies, with colors ranging from green for zero rate to yellow for 50% positive rate, and black for negative rate; the white candlestick chart shows Bitcoin price fluctuations, which contrasts with the funding rate.
3. Sector performance
According to Artemis data, the average increase of blockchain sectors this week was (10.2%), among which Store of Value, RWA, and Gen 1 smart contracts ranked the top three with (44.8%, 28.1%, and 27.0%) respectively.
This week, the increases for Bitcoin and Ethereum were (9.4% and 9.3%).
The three worst performing sectors were: DePIN (-2.2%), AI (-0.8%), and MemeCoin (0.3%).
Market Liquidity
1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization and stablecoin supply
This week's total cryptocurrency market value data shows that it has risen from $3.08 trillion to $3.34 trillion, an increase of $260 billion, with a total market value increase of about 8.44%. BTC has a market share of 56.78% and ETH has a market share of 11.11%.
The total supply of stablecoins, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased by $3.44 billion, or approximately 1.99%, from $172.66 billion to $176.10 billion this week.
2. Potential purchasing power within the exchange
Data shows that this week, exchange assets showed a net inflow trend, especially the large inflow of USDT after the US election. This phenomenon may be that investors are preparing for the upcoming market volatility, and the inflow of funds into exchanges may mean an increase in purchasing demand in the short term.
In addition, the highest single-day net capital inflow reached US$11.8 billion on November 20, surpassing the highest single-day net inflow of US$6.7 billion in the previous bull market, indicating ample market liquidity.
3. Encryption Dynamics
The overall sentiment of the crypto market this week is bullish, with CLV, OM, and CTXC leading the way with increases of 190%, 147%, and 118% respectively, and mainstream coins such as XRP and ADA also showing impressive gains. According to Blockchaincenter data, the current altcoin seasonal index is 33 (+6), indicating that the market is still dominated by Bitcoin. Although the popularity of altcoins is relatively low, it is showing signs of recovery.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Funds
Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $2.6036 billion this week.
2. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current price of Bitcoin (US$99,000) is in the "consider fixed investment" range.
3. Bitcoin net profit and loss performance
The Bitcoin realized net profit and loss indicator shows that the current market is recovering and the structure is similar to that in March this year, when the Bitcoin price reached a high point in mid-March. We need to be alert to the potential risk of a correction, especially the profit-taking behavior that may occur in the market after a rapid rise.
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders
According to on-chain data, long-term Bitcoin holders have seen a significant decline in their net positions, with the red bar chart showing a gradual increase in selling pressure. Since mid-October, the net position changes of long-term holders have turned from positive to negative, showing that some long-term investors have begun to gradually take profits. This phenomenon is especially obvious when the price of Bitcoin rises to near new highs, indicating that some capital in the market chooses to make profits at high levels, but the selling pressure has not yet reached the peak in March this year.
Although market sentiment is optimistic, the reduction of LTH positions may increase short-term selling pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the behavior of short-term holders (STH) and whether market demand can absorb the new supply.
5. Bitcoin on-chain purchasing power
According to on-chain data, Bitcoin’s long- and short-term holder data this week shows that as the price rises, the positions of short-term holders (red line) increase significantly, while the positions of long-term holders (blue line) decrease .
It reflects the flow of funds from long-term investors to short-term speculators. As the proportion of short-term holders increases, market risk appetite increases, but volatility risk also increases simultaneously. The reduction of long-term holders indicates that there are more high-level profit-taking behaviors, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether short-term funds can stably support market prices.
6. Bitcoin contract open interest
According to the data, Bitcoin contract holdings in exchanges rose rapidly this week, climbing from US$54.45 billion to US$64.17 billion, not only setting a new record high for contract holdings, but also setting a new high for Bitcoin prices at the same time.
7. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index turned positive from negative at the beginning of the month, indicating that the demand for Bitcoin in the US market has increased, driving the premium upward.
A positive premium differential could suggest that U.S. investors have greater buying power over the market than global investors.
8. Short-term on-chain cost benchmark band
This week, the Bitcoin short-term on-chain cost benchmark band shows that the price is close to the upper track (red line) of $103,200, reflecting the high market sentiment and the increased willingness of short-term investors to make profits. The realized price (blue line) for long-term holders is $72,700.
In the short term, prices may face resistance at the upper track and the risk of a correction will increase. It remains to be seen whether they can stabilize at a high level to support further upward movement.
9. Bitcoin historical monthly returns
According to historical data, Bitcoin performed strongly in November, with an increase of 40.67%, close to the historical average of 46.30%; the average increase in December was 5.45%, which has been mostly positive returns in history, so we need to pay attention to the risk of profit-taking.
