Current market conditions and their relation to yesterday's trend:
Yesterday's review:
Yesterday, after a short-term upward movement, BTC was blocked near the high point (99,588), and the candlestick pattern shows a significant upper shadow, indicating that after the bulls attempted to push high, there was heavy selling pressure.
The bullish sentiment during the day is gradually weakening, with the price testing the short-term support position (MA30 moving average) several times.
After the trading volume expanded, it quickly decreased, indicating a weakening of market participation.
Today's status:
Hourly level: BTC current price 98373, running below MA7 (98978) and MA30 (98616) moving averages, short-term moving averages are arranged in a bearish manner, and short-term resistance has further declined.
4-hour level: Two consecutive bearish candlesticks, MACD below the zero axis, green bars continue to grow, indicating that bearish sentiment is dominant, and the difficulty of rebound increases.
Daily level: EMA short-term moving average is turning down, and the price is close to the 10-day moving average support (98000), further breaking may trigger market stop-loss orders.
Key technical indicator analysis:
Bollinger Bands (BOLL):
Currently, the Bollinger Bands are in a contracted state, and the price is below the middle track, with the possibility of testing the lower track downward in the short term.
Lower track support level: 97100-97300.
Moving average (MA):
Short-term MA5 and MA10 moving averages are turning down and suppressing price rebounds, indicating an increase in short-term downward pressure.
Support level: MA30 (near 98616).
Trading volume (VOLUME):
Trading volume is shrinking and continuously decreasing, although the bearish dominance has increased, both bulls and bears are exhibiting wait-and-see sentiment.
If the trading volume increases during the day (breaking yesterday's trading volume), further directional choice may occur.
MACD indicator:
The MACD fast and slow lines on the hourly chart have formed a death cross below the zero axis, and the green bars continue to grow, indicating a weak short-term trend.
4-hour MACD shows that the downward trend is still not over.
Today's strategy forecast:
Combining yesterday's failed rebound with the current technical trend, today leans towards short-term short positions, with a focus on the following range operations:
Short position strategy:
Entry range: 98600-98800.
Replenishment range: 99200-99500.
Stop loss position: 99700.
Target position:
First target: 97800-98000.
Second target: 97300-97500.
Long position strategy (rebound layout):
If the price touches the lower support range and stops falling, a light position can be set for long positions.
Entry range: 97200-97300.
Stop loss position: 96800.
Target position:
First target: 98000-98300.
Second target: 98800-99000.
Summary and future expectations
Short-term trend: Currently, bears dominate, and the probability of price continuing to dive is relatively high, but if trading volume does not increase, the decline may be limited.
Risk control: It is recommended to operate with light positions and pay attention to whether the support in the 97500-98000 area stabilizes.
Follow-up observation points:
If the price forms a double bottom pattern near 97500, a rebound may occur in the short term.
Otherwise, if this position is broken, the market may further test the support at 96000 or even lower.
BTC is currently in a key oscillation range, market sentiment tends to be cautious, and short-term operations need to be flexible. Controlling positions and entering the market in batches is a prudent strategy, while closely monitoring changes in trading volume and key technical indicators to adjust operational direction. Hit follow on Tang Ge to make your next round of market run more steadily!
