Author: Chandler, Foresight News
Bitcoin's price continues to hit new highs, breaking through the $99,000 mark, energizing the entire cryptocurrency market. Established altcoins are also making their mark, with Ripple (XRP) standing out particularly. According to Bitget market data, on November 22, XRP broke through 1.4 USDT, currently quoted at 1.416 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of over 30%.
Compared to the booming Meme market, established altcoins seem to be quietly rising, not attracting as much attention as Meme coins, but accumulating market interest with steady gains.
According to Kaiko data, as of November 18, weekly trading volume for altcoins has surged above $300 billion for the first time since 2021. Among them, the trading volumes of the four major tokens DOGE, XRP, SOL, and PEPE account for 60% of the total trading volume.
Since November, XRP has quietly risen from around $0.5 to a peak of $1.435, an increase of 182.4%, reaching a new high in over three years; ADA rose from $0.33 to $0.9, with a nearly 170% increase this month; XLM rose from $0.09 to $0.294, an increase of over 220%. These signs seem to indicate that established altcoins are gradually shaking off their sluggishness and reshaping their positions in the market with actual performance.
If this trend continues, the revival of established cryptocurrencies intertwined with the activity of hot tokens may lead to a broader 'altcoin season' in the market.
Gary Gensler has announced he will soon step down, potentially ending years of litigation.
The recent strong rise of XRP is underpinned by a multitude of intertwined factors. The change in market sentiment is undoubtedly the most direct driving force.
On July 13, 2023, when the court ruled that XRP sales on digital trading platforms are not considered securities, Ripple achieved a partial victory. However, the court ruled that XRP sold to institutional investors by Ripple constitutes unregistered securities. Additionally, the court ruled that the personal XRP sales by Garlinghouse and Larsen did not constitute violations. On August 7, 2023, the court made a final ruling requiring Ripple to pay a civil fine of $125.0351 million and prohibiting the company from further violations of securities laws.
On October 3, the U.S. SEC announced it is appealing the previous ruling by the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals regarding the Web3 payment company Ripple. An SEC spokesperson stated, 'The district court's ruling in the Ripple case conflicts with decades of Supreme Court precedent and securities law, and we look forward to presenting our case in the Second Circuit.'
However, with Trump's election victory, this regulation may ease.
On November 22, according to the U.S. SEC's official website, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will officially step down on January 20, 2025. The market is beginning to anticipate changes in the future regulatory environment, which may soften, settle, or even dismiss lawsuits against companies like Ripple.
Gary's long-standing strict regulation of the crypto industry, particularly against Ripple, has kept XRP in a dual predicament of legality and market perception. Now, signs of a potential easing of this regulatory stance give the market an opportunity to reassess XRP's value.
From the data, according to CoinGlass, the open interest (OI) of XRP futures contracts has approached $2.44 billion, reaching a historic high. This figure reflects an unprecedented level of speculative enthusiasm for XRP. Open interest refers to the total amount of active futures or options contracts that have not yet been settled and is usually seen as an important indicator of market activity and trading enthusiasm.
Institutions are scrambling to position themselves for ETFs.
In addition to the easing of regulations, several institutions have also begun applying for XRP ETFs.
On October 2, a spokesperson from Bitwise confirmed that Bitwise submitted an application for the XRP ETF, which has been officially filed on the Delaware government website. According to its S-1 registration document submitted to the U.S. SEC for its XRP ETF, the custodian of XRP will primarily use cold storage to store the trust's assets, transferring a limited amount of assets to hot storage as necessary for effective basket creation and redemption.
One week later, cryptocurrency investment firm Canary Capital submitted a registration application for the XRP Spot ETF 'Canary XRP ETF' to the U.S. SEC. The ETF aims to provide investors with an investment channel without directly holding XRP, while using CME's CF Ripple Index as a price tracking benchmark. Its founder Steven McClurg stated that the positive changes in the regulatory environment and investors' demand for diversified crypto assets are the main reasons driving this application.
On October 16, Grayscale Investments submitted an application to the U.S. SEC to convert its mixed crypto fund Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). As of September 30, the fund was primarily composed of Bitcoin, accounting for 74.7%, followed by Ethereum at about 18.55%, with the remainder made up of SOL, XRP, and AVAX. The company had previously converted its Bitcoin and Ethereum funds into ETFs.
On November 2, 21Shares submitted an application for the XRP ETF '21Shares Core XRP TRUST' to the U.S. SEC.
These continuous applications indicate that XRP's market position as a crypto asset is steadily recovering, reflecting the market's confidence in XRP's future potential. After Ripple and the SEC’s legal dispute made progress, concerns about XRP's legality have eased. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs being approved one after another, the wave of XRP ETF applications is undoubtedly an important signal for the industry moving forward.
Is the return of altcoins hopeful?
The CMC cryptocurrency altcoin season index is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the current cryptocurrency market is in an altcoin-dominated season. This index is based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, providing detailed charts and metrics to track market trends and the market capitalization share of altcoins.
From the charts and index data, CMC's cryptocurrency altcoin season index currently shows 27/100, indicating that the market is still primarily dominated by Bitcoin, while altcoins have not yet fully entered a strong dominant position. However, the trend of change over the past 7 days is worth noting. The altcoin season index has gradually climbed from a low point on the 17th, significantly jumping to 28 on the 21st, indicating that market interest in altcoins is reviving.
Looking at historical data, the current index, although far below the annual high of 50, has shown a significant rebound from the low point of 13 earlier this month. This upward trend may indicate that market funds are gradually rotating from mainstream assets like Bitcoin to the altcoin sector. Particularly in light of the strong performance of established altcoins like XRP and ADA recently, this trend may further strengthen.
Meanwhile, the market capitalization of altcoins is also steadily growing. Although the growth rate has not yet reached a level sufficient to completely reverse the market landscape, its gradual stabilization and slight upward trend reflect subtle changes in market sentiment. Investors are beginning to reassess the value of altcoins and gradually shifting their attention to these assets.
If this trend can continue and maintain a stable rise in the coming weeks, perhaps the altcoin season can officially arrive.
However, based on the performance of the Top 100 over the past 90 days, Meme coins, with their high speculation and social drive, still find it difficult to be shaken from their market position in the short term.
