Bitcoin is just a step away from its historic high! The $100,000 threshold is not only a key psychological point for both bulls and bears but also a century milestone for Bitcoin. If it can break through successfully, it will undoubtedly lead the crypto market to new highs! According to AICoin data, current multi-dimensional factors indicate that Bitcoin is about to break through!
1. Large Holder Layout
According to the statistics of large orders from the main force, spot large holders are bullish, and the current total selling amount has reached an astonishing $740 million, mainly concentrated in the range of $98,945 to $103,300. The layout situation of large holders on major trading platforms is as follows:
• Coinbase large holders placed a heavy bet at $100,000, with an investment of $60.15 million, and the order has been ongoing for over 27 hours, which is quite rare.
• Binance large holders placed a heavy bet in the range of $99,000 to $100,000, with a total selling amount exceeding $260 million, among which a super large holder frequently placed and canceled orders at the $100,000 threshold amounting to $100 million.
• OKX large holders set a bullish target at $100,000, with a rare sell order exceeding $21 million, and the order has been ongoing for over 19 hours.
• Bitstamp large holders firmly bet on $99,500, with an ongoing sell order for over 10 days amounting to $17.46 million.
• Bitfinex large holders focused on the range of $100,880 to $101,080, with a cumulative sell order of $43.62 million.
2. Market Sentiment
• The ratio of long and short positions in OKX BTC remains below 1.0, once reaching a new low of 0.49, indicating that the main force's sentiment is leaning towards bullish.
• Coinbase BTC maintains a positive premium, and the main force in the US market continues to buy, further confirming the bullish sentiment in the market.
• The greed and fear index soared to 94, reaching its highest level since mid-February 2021, indicating that the market is in an extremely greedy phase.
3. On-chain Data
From on-chain data, investors holding 100 to 1000 BTC have recently shown active performance. It is reported that since October 6, the number of addresses in this holding range has increased by 373, with a cumulative increase of about 310,600 coins, and the current total balance has reached 429.31 BTC, accounting for 21.7% of the total circulation.
It is noteworthy that super whales are also actively increasing their Bitcoin holdings. In the past 10 days, they have cumulatively increased their holdings by 49,786.7 BTC, and the current total balance has reached 3.0157 million coins, accounting for 15.2% of the market share.
The activity of short-term holders continues to rise, with the proportion of Bitcoin held for 0 to 6 months increasing from 19.7% to 24.52%. Meanwhile, the firm holding attitude of long-term holders is becoming increasingly evident, with the proportion of Bitcoin held for over 10 years reaching 16.82%, a historical high.
Four, Capital Changes
MicroStrategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings. According to statistics, this institution currently holds 331,200 BTC, with an average purchase price of $50,071.86. Based on the current BTC price, its holding value has reached $32.65 billion, with an unrealized profit of $16 billion. Additionally, the company recently completed a $3 billion convertible note issuance, planning to further purchase Bitcoin. According to AICoin index data, MicroStrategy's stock price (MSTR) has risen to $397.28, at a nearly quarter-high.
The funds for the spot Bitcoin ETF are also continuously expanding, with a cumulative net inflow of $7.22 billion since November 6.
Market demand for funds is growing in sync, with the off-exchange price of USDT rising from 6.9 yuan in October to the current 7.22 yuan. Meanwhile, since November 6, the issuance of USDT has cumulatively increased by 10.2 billion pieces.
5. Tips for Seizing Opportunities
1. MACD Structure Adjustment
• Signal One: MACD dead cross above the zero line, while fast and slow lines approach the zero line, but the BTC price remains above EMA24 and shows a slow upward trend. This is an ultra-strong adjustment structure. If the MACD crosses golden again above the zero line, BTC is likely to usher in a strong upward trend.
• Signal Two: BTC retraces but does not break the EMA52 average line, while the MACD DEA line remains above the zero line and returns towards the zero line. This is a good rebound signal.
2. Pin Volume Increase
• Top Signal: If there is a significant upward pin and an increase in trading volume, this is usually a good top signal. If it is accompanied by the main force selling, the effect is more significant.
• Rebound Signal: If there is a significant downward pin and accompanied by an increase in trading volume, this is usually a good rebound signal. If it is accompanied by the main force buying the dip, the effect is even better.
3. OBV Combined with Trading Volume Average
When OBV remains above MAOBV, if the 10-day trading volume average crosses above the 40-day trading volume average, it can be considered a good bullish signal.
4. LSUR + Position Volume
When LSUR continues to decline while the Position holding volume increases in the opposite direction, it indicates that the main force is bullish and continues to increase positions, usually suggesting that the upward trend may continue.
5. Breakout Hunters or False Strategy
The early warning strategy developed by the author can effectively identify the true and false breakout trends of custom cycles of 45 minutes and 90 minutes.
In summary, the deep-seated strategies of large holders, the extreme changes in market sentiment, and the potential trends in capital flow all release positive sentiment. If BTC can stabilize above $99,000, it is expected to sprint towards the historic high of $100,000!
