Author: Katherine Ross, Blockworks; Translated by: Baishui, Golden Finance
We ask ourselves a question over and over again: When will altcoins take off?
To be fair, David has done a great job of preparing for the next altcoin season to take off. But to find out how optimistic people should be, I turned to Jupiter Cheng of HashKey.
Zheng and David are on the same page when it comes to when we can expect to see the next altcoin season, and HashKey has put together a report explaining why the team is so bullish on altcoins right now.
Part of the reason is that Bitcoin's dominance is likely to peak, and if you are a regular reader of (Empire), you would know that this is one of the necessary factors for altcoins to soar.
Once Bitcoin's dominance exceeds 60% or even 65%, Zheng expects a 'massive altcoin season' to begin. BTC's current dominance is 61.64%.
Zheng emphasized three areas of success he is focusing on: Ethereum, Solana, and certain tokens in DeFi, such as UNI and SKY (formerly known as MKR).
Let's start with Ethereum, especially since it feels like more and more people are falling off the bull market train now.
HashKey believes that there are three factors leading to Ethereum's collapse: intensifying competition, value transfer, and reduced transaction costs.
A review of past altcoin seasons provided by HashKey
The report noted: "Currently, the Ethereum community is working on metrics to measure 'Ethereum consistency,' and these efforts are expected to yield best practices that further solidify Ethereum's ecosystem and ensure long-term success."
As for Solana, it is a 'major foundational game,' different from the 'dilemma game' played by Ethereum.
"Solana has achieved a lot this year, and compared to Ethereum, Solana is somewhat centralized but very efficient. Therefore, Solana's operational capability is strong. Ethereum focuses more on technology... the tech layer, decentralization layer, and security layer, but Solana focuses more on how to achieve mass adoption," Zheng explained to me.
In addition, Zheng believes this will be the next token chosen by ETFs after the ETH and BTC funds.
In summary, "Many DeFi projects from the last cycle have gradually become infrastructure and across cycles, forming a 'must-have' pattern," HashKey wrote.
But it's not all bull markets and daydreams; Zheng is not so optimistic about some things.
For example, the second layer. There are only so many that investors can focus on. Moreover, even aside from that, only the 'top 5 or top 10 are valuable,' he explained.
To address this issue, he proposed a suggestion: "If we try to choose the best second layer from the 100 provided, it's quite difficult, so maybe just select the top ones, like we choose the seven giants from the US stock market."
