Although Polymarket faces strict scrutiny and challenges from U.S. regulatory agencies, it has become famous for its accurate predictions of the U.S. election and has successfully ignited the popularity of the prediction track. Behind the rise of Polymarket, there is no lack of strong support from Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum. Today, another decentralized prediction market, TrueMarkets, has also received the favor and endorsement of Vitalik.
On November 19, according to Patron monitoring, the address marked "vitalik.eth" on the chain had cross-chained 32 Ethereum coins from the Ethereum chain to Base and minted 400 Patron NFTs.
Vitalik’s “carrying goods” behavior immediately attracted market attention. OpenSea data shows that more than 3,300 Patron NFTs were sold in the past 24 hours, with sales of approximately 703 Ethereum, topping the market’s daily volume list. As of the time of publication, the floor price of Patron NFT has also risen to 0.23 Ethereum, which is more than 2.8 times higher than the minting price (0.08 Ethereum).
According to reports, Patron NFT was launched by TrueMarkets, a decentralized binary prediction market based on Base that allows users to predict the results of real-world events, aiming to break the information asymmetry related to global news, so that people can Express immediate emotions about the likelihood of potential outcomes. TrueMarkets plans to release V1 by the end of this year.
Source: TrueMarkets
The operating mechanisms of prediction platforms such as TrueMarkets and Polymarket are roughly the same at their core. They both simplify complex event predictions into two answers of "yes/no" and create a binary trading market accordingly. The answers of the two parties will be based on market perception. Odds are adjusted instantly on the outcome, with traders and market makers providing liquidity to maintain market balance and stability. When the outcome of the event is finally revealed, tokens that match the correct answer will be redeemable for a value of $1, while tokens that match the correct answer will lose all value.
But TrueMarkets also has its unique features. According to TrueMarkets project director Millie, in most other prediction markets, minting prediction tokens is usually limited to whitelisted users, TrueMarkets will eventually be permissionless, and market creation will be achieved by AI Agents. And all transactions on TrueMarkets are completed directly on the chain through Uniswap V3, including trading, liquidity provision and market creation. At the same time, TrueMarkets analyzes market results through an oracle established by the protocol. This oracle is combined with a decentralized jury pool to achieve accurate decisions in a transparent manner.
It is worth mentioning that TrueMarkets has also opened a challenge window during which anyone can dispute the proposed solution. In order to prevent manipulation and ensure the orderly operation of the oracle, TrueMarkets has introduced the important role of Disputer. Specifically, when a certain prediction result triggers a dispute, Disputer can challenge it by paying a deposit of US$250 and stating the reasons for the challenge. If its challenge is accepted, Disputer will not only recover the deposit, but also receive corresponding rewards. In order to ensure fairness and impartiality, TrueMarkets has set up a three-stage arbitration mechanism, including initial proposal challenges, oracle committee decision challenges and token holder voting disputes. Disputers need to pay different challenge costs at each stage, respectively. 250 USD, 5,000 USD and a wallet holding 250,000 platform tokens $TRUE.
In addition, although Polymarket was exposed or conducted a token airdrop, the platform has not made it clear that it will issue its own tokens. TrueMarkets has announced its own token economics and will launch a TGE (Token Generation Event) at the end of this year.
According to reports, TRUE is a multi-functional utility token in TrueMarkets that can be used to control protocol fees and governance. The total supply of $TRUE is 100 million, of which 40.3% is allocated to Oracle Patron NFT (15,071) and Truth Seeker Patron NFT (59) holders, with each NFT corresponding to 2,666.67 $TRUE tokens; 2.2% will be used for airdrops to Discord and beta users; 7.5% will be used for market incentives; 12.5% will be allocated to $TRUE/Ethereum Liquidity Providers (LP) on Base within two years; 12.5% will be allocated to oracles Opportunistic incentives; the remaining 25% will be allocated to the TrueMarkets team and consultants and will be unlocked linearly within two years.
Source: PANews
“Once prediction markets reach critical size, a strong feedback loop develops. The wider their audience, the more accurate their predictions. The election was a turning point for prediction markets, as the event proved that such platforms are the most accurate indicators and Main news source. Looking into the future, it is expected that the world will increasingly rely on prediction markets for news and entertainment, and the more people participate, the stronger the prediction capabilities of the prediction market will be,” Millie said regarding the development prospects of the prediction market.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reproduced with permission from: (PANews)
Original author: Nancy, PANews
"Let Buterin spend Ethereum to mint NFT!" What are TrueMarkets? How to Subvert Prediction Markets" This article was first published on "Crypto City"
