As the end of 2024 approaches, the U.S. stock market, led by AI giants, is staging a dramatic rebound, yielding plentiful returns that are truly eye-catching! But wait, the big shots at Goldman Sachs are not idle; they are waving little red flags and loudly warning: the stock market feast of 2025 is quietly approaching two major risks, ready to dampen our revelry!
First, the biggest risk is the wave of 'overly optimistic' sentiment. You see, Trump won the election, interest rates are low, and everyone is enthusiastic about the economy. But what happened? After enjoying the early sweetness, the market is like a well-fed child, easily crying at the slightest provocation — the risk of a pullback is soaring! Goldman Sachs' strategy masters, especially Peter Oppenheimer, bluntly stated in Monday's research report: global stock markets have surged 40% since last October, and now, the space for disappointment is as high as the sky, and the road to rising valuations is harder than the Shu road!
Let's talk about the Trump administration's policies, ah, that is also an unknown. The tariff war is about to break out, with comprehensive tariffs of 10% to 20%, and for Chinese goods, it's as high as 60% to 100%. Doesn't this make the wallets of American citizens a bit thinner?
The second major risk, which Goldman Sachs has named — 'Abnormal Market Concentration Syndrome'. In simple terms, the top ten stocks in the U.S. occupy half of the global market index! Giants like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Google's parent company Alphabet, and Meta are practically the mainstays of the S&P 500 index; this year, their returns are almost touching the 37% ceiling, while the entire index is only 31%, the gap is not trivial!
Goldman Sachs reminds everyone that such concentration is not a good thing, especially when these tech giants transform from light capital young players to capital-intensive muscle men; returns may slowly shrink. After all, historically, companies that can maintain high growth and high profits over the long term are extremely rare!
However, Goldman Sachs is not dismissing these companies outright. They believe that while the performance of these companies over the next few years may raise some doubts, it hasn't reached the point of a bubble bursting. However, double-digit growth in the stock market and the soaring days of Bitcoin seem to be coming to an end. Goldman Sachs predicts that the annualized return of the S&P 500 index over the next ten years may only be 3%, a significant discount compared to the 13% of the past decade and the long-term average of 11%!
Of course, Goldman Sachs also mentioned that if market concentration were not so exaggerated, their predictions could be more optimistic, and the annual return rate could soar to 7%! But for now, they provide a benchmark range of 3% to 11%, and in the worst-case scenario, it might even drop to -1%!
In short, the cryptocurrency market has risks, and investments should be cautious. We, the onlookers, should just sit tight and watch the show unfold!