According to a report by Jinshi, Nomura Securities no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the policy meeting in December. This makes it the first global brokerage to imply a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve after Trump's election victory. Nomura now anticipates that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates twice more in March and June 2025, each by 25 basis points. The brokerage maintains its forecast for the Federal Funds Rate at 4.125% before next year. Nomura expects that after a possible rate cut in June next year, the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts for a long time until March 2026.
The Federal Reserve's benchmark overnight rate is currently in the range of 4.50%-4.75%, having been reduced by 75 basis points so far this year. Meanwhile, other global brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points next month.