Recently, I saw an interesting viewpoint that if Bitcoin cannot buy oil or industrial goods, then it is no different from waste paper. This sounds rough, but if you think about it carefully, it really does have some merit.
Let's imagine, if we go back to the prosperous 1990s in America, if it strongly promoted Bitcoin and dealt with anyone who opposed it, then Bitcoin could indeed become a currency or investment like the US dollar. But now, in this situation, well, it's a bit difficult.
Why is it difficult? Simply put, it lacks muscle. What is the muscle of the US dollar? It's America's military strength and its economic hegemony. With dollars in hand, you can use them in most parts of the world because it stands behind a formidable 'big brother'. But what about Bitcoin? Who stands behind it? A group of programmers? A group of miners? A group of believers?
I am not saying Bitcoin has no value at all. It has its technical advantages, such as decentralization, security, and so on. But these advantages seem a bit flimsy in front of real 'hard power'. It's like a skilled warrior holding a sword that can cut through iron, only to find himself in a world full of guns. No matter how sharp the sword is, it cannot stop bullets.
Some may say that the value of Bitcoin lies in consensus. If everyone recognizes it, then it has value. This is true, but consensus can be both fragile and resilient. In times of peace, when the market is stable and everyone is confident about the future, consensus is as strong as rock. But once faced with a storm, economic crisis, or geopolitical conflict, consensus can collapse in an instant.
Think about it, if one day a large-scale war or economic crisis really breaks out, can you buy bread with a pile of Bitcoin? Can you buy gasoline? Can you buy weapons? It would be very difficult. At that time, people would rather trust tangible goods, hard currency that can be seen and touched, rather than a string of code.
Returning to the original point, for Bitcoin to truly become a global currency or investment, it needs 'muscle', the ability to be exchanged for actual goods in the real world, and the stability to withstand risks. These can hardly be achieved solely through technology and consensus. It needs a powerful entity to endorse, support, and protect it.
What will the future hold? No one can say for sure. Perhaps one day a superpower or a strong multinational organization will decide to fully support Bitcoin, and its fate may change. But at least for now, it is still just a potential stock, a stock that needs time and opportunity to prove its potential.
