When Bitcoin is at 40,000, Ethereum is at 3,000
When Bitcoin is at 60,000, Ethereum is still at 3,000
Bitcoin is now 90,000, while Ethereum is still 3,000
Looking at the K-line of ETH/BTC, I can't help but wonder, will I miss this bull market if I hold ETH?

Simply put, Ethereum was in a bull market in 2017 and 2021, mainly because Ethereum participated in both rounds of bull markets. Both ICO and Defi in those years required a large amount of ETH. What about this round? The main line is not on ETH at all. The only innovation is Restaking, which allows everyone to keep putting chips on the ETH chain to earn income. However, in the process of the bull market, the money-making effect is constantly pushed up. Who cares about the yield of a few points in a year?

Therefore, it is obvious that selling pressure and large funds are dumping stocks on the market. If you don’t make money in the bull market, you will lose money, because when the bear market comes, no one can escape the beating. Let’s revisit the main line of this round of bull market. The most obvious one is the MEME ecosystem, and the main line of MEME is based on SOL. The other main lines are messy and will not clearly benefit ETH. So it is obvious that if MEME does not turn off, SOL will continue to be strong. As more and more people rush to the dog, the demand for SOL will become more vigorous, and it is natural for the tide to rise. Of course, for the short term, the madman’s judgment is still that MEME will adjust at any time and has entered a short-term climax, so those who are optimistic about SOL and patiently wait for a callback are more cost-effective.

What about ETH? The madman believes that at least at the moment we don’t see too many reasons for ETH to rise, and the bull market really doesn’t seem to have much to do with it. What we can expect in the future is that the US Ethereum ETF will be open for staking. Although it only has a 3% yield, it is also a considerable temptation for large institutions. In the future, as the US Treasury yield drops, ETH staking will become more and more attractive. Another situation where funds can flow back to ETH is to switch tracks and fight for its rebound, but this is also a matter for the future. The later the bull market is, the greater the risk, and ETH may only come to the fore. So many people say that ETH is now the doomsday chariot, and the fundamental logic is here.

We can also think about it from another perspective. Taking the last bull market as an example, a large number of new public chains and old public chains appeared frequently. Not to mention the new ones, many of the old public chains no longer have narrative capabilities. The on-chain data is pitiful. There is no new ecology. The situation is even worse than the current ETH. They still enjoyed the feast of high liquidity in the market and saw a large wave of increases.

Therefore, the madman's conclusion about ETH is that the main uptrend is likely to occur in the middle and late stages of the bull market, but it will be painful to wait. As for how to operate, it depends on your own opinion.