Bitcoin's price has followed a remarkable four-year cycle since 2015, according to analyst Alphractal. This cycle includes accumulation, bull run, distribution, and bear market phases. Each phase has been accurate in marking price tops and bottoms.
The current cycle suggests a potential peak in October 2025 and a bottom in October 2026. Notably, Bitcoin is still in a bull run, offering investors a growth opportunity. These insights come from fractal analysis, which is widely studied in financial markets, making Bitcoin’s predictability remarkable despite its volatility.
The Phases of Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle
The first Bitcoin cycle occurred between 2012 and 2014. During this time, there was a bull run that pushed prices higher, followed by a distribution phase. This led to a sharp decline and a bear market in 2015. The next cycle (2015–2018) mirrored this pattern, with prices peaking in late 2017. By 2018, Bitcoin had another bear market, reaching its lowest point in early 2019.
Similar trends were observed throughout the most recent cycle, which ran from 2019 to 2022. Prices spiked during the bull phase, peaking in late 2021. Then, a distribution phase brought volatility, followed by a bear market in late 2022. Each cycle consistently matched these phases, demonstrating the fractal nature of Bitcoin.
Current Assessment and Future Predictions
Bitcoin's historical trend could repeat itself between 2023 and 2026. Alphractal's analysis suggests the next price peak will be around October 2025. After that, the price is likely to bottom in October 2026. Importantly, the current bull run shows potential for growth in the coming months, as highlighted by historical data.
Furthermore, the chart highlights smaller short-term cycles within the four-year structure. These shorter cycles represent short corrections or spikes that are consistent with the overall trend. Therefore, the predictable nature of Bitcoin's cycle structure creates opportunities for informed investment decisions.
