In the past week, there has been a frantic pursuit of Bitcoin buying prices. The price has continued to rise from US$78,000 last week to the highest point of US$93,000. The weekly increase reached 20%, and then dropped to US$91,000. This also drove the price of Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. Rising, with a weekly increase of 20%, the encryption market can be said to have the most gratifying week, and the main driving force behind it is Wall Street’s institutional investors.
After Trump won the election, institutional investors were optimistic about the Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies and invested in Bitcoin as a "Trump concept stock." In just one week, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $5 billion in funds, but As prices approached local highs, there was a net outflow of US$400 million on Thursday, the third largest single-day outflow since the establishment of the ETF, indicating that some institutions had already made enough to leave the market, but the market frenzy continued.
Several technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is overbought. In addition, as the market's FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment rises, the pressure for corrections increases. This week, Bitcoin has also been intermittently rising, then pulling back, and then rising higher again, showing that many investors still choose to obtain profits. After profits were taken, although Bitcoin still rose 17% this week, it was still far from the $100,000 target that the market had bet on.
We believe that the market is indeed overheated, especially when Musk announced that he will join the cabinet to establish "DOGE", which drove Dogecoin to surge by more than 20%. To some extent, it is almost a response to short-term gains, but the party is not over yet, institutions and avoidance Insurance funds continued to buy, but this time retail investors were relatively calm, and institutional investors were indeed ruthless in chasing prices.
For example, Goldman Sachs recently disclosed that it holds a Bitcoin position worth $710 million. Compared with August, Goldman Sachs’ holdings in Bitcoin-related spot ETFs have increased significantly, from about $285 million to $710 million. More than half of them were exposed to Bitcoin through positions in the BlackRock IBIT fund, with the amount growing 83% to $461 million, showing that high-asset clients are buying Bitcoin spot ETFs through Goldman Sachs.
It is worth noting that while institutional investors are adding to their holdings crazily, retail investors and miners have begun to sell. On-chain data shows that a large number of Bitcoins have recently been transferred to centralized exchanges by giant whales, possibly in order to realize the recent surge in profits. At the same time, the selling pressure of miners has continued to rise, and some media have even reported that some Bitcoin cold wallet assets from 15 years ago have been transferred to exchanges. Many retail investors have chosen to temporarily withdraw from the market, waiting for a correction before looking for opportunities to buy.
And we also believe that with this strategy, institutions have lost their minds and are frantically pursuing purchases. Waiting for Trump’s trading announcement, there may be another correction. At this time, it is a good choice to get out and realize profits. From various data observations, we really It is difficult to convince yourself that such a rise is a healthy phenomenon in the market. Bitcoin is bullish in the long term, but it has risen too fast in the short term.
Sources: MICA RESEARCH A. On November 12, Bitcoin broke through 88,000 US dollars, and the prediction market showed that the probability of it exceeding 100,000 US dollars increased.
The price of Bitcoin is in a hot stage, constantly hitting new all-time highs, and has now exceeded $88,000. Funds continue to pour into the Bitcoin market, and traders are in a very crazy state, rising by 10.6% in the past 24 hours. After Trump won the 2024 US presidential election last week, CNBC analysts predicted that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 by the end of the year.
In addition, the prediction probability of the Bitcoin price target price of $100,000 contract on the prediction market Polymarket platform has also increased significantly. Bitcoin is currently only 13.6% away from US$100,000, making the derivatives market equally hot. In just 4 hours, more than US$120 million in contracts were forced to be liquidated, most of which were over-leveraged short positions.
However, we believe that the market will still correct in the short term, but long-term investors do not need to pay attention to this short-term downward revision. Before Trump takes office on January 20, the market will continue to ferment its bullish imagination, which is excellent for cryptocurrencies. At the rising point, funds are currently being withdrawn from technology stocks and bond markets, and are now flowing into Bitcoin, reversing the past situation where AI was the dominant player.
B. On November 13, to raise working capital, Ethereum continued to sell ETH for cash.
According to data from the blockchain analysis platform Spot On Chain, the Ethereum Foundation sold 100 ETH on November 2. It was the first sell-off since the Ethereum Foundation released its operating report last week, but the market's rising sentiment successfully offset it. Fund sell-off, ETH price remains strong after recent sales, up more than 33% since last week and currently trading above $3,230, also thanks to buying by institutional investors, spot Ethereum ETF inflows A new high of US$295.5 million.
The data analysis company revealed that since 2024, the Ethereum Foundation has sold a total of 4,266 ETH, raising US$11.83 million, with an average selling price of US$2,773 per coin. The foundation sold 1,250 and 300 ETH in September and October respectively, adopting a strategy of doing so in batches to avoid affecting the market price too much.
These sales prompted the community to question why ETH assets were not chosen to be pledged. In response, Vitalik, the founder of Ethereum, responded that these realized profits are used to fund developers and research projects that promote technological progress, and are necessary expenditures for the Ethereum ecosystem. These previous waves of selling have seriously affected the price increase of Ethereum. However, this wave of trading gains after Trump won the election has successfully made up for the price to rise back to its due level, and is not affected by the foundation's selling.
C. On November 15, Bitcoin’s market share climbed over 60%, reaching a record high
The price of Bitcoin has continued to rise in the past few days, with the price reaching as high as $93,000, a record high. It has also driven up the prices of other small and medium-sized cryptocurrencies and altcoins. However, the increase in Bitcoin is still greater than that of other alternative coins, showing that investor funds In particular, formal institutional funds continue to buy Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have not yet spilled over to Ethereum or other targets, which has also caused its market share to increase by more than 60%.
After Bitcoin encountered resistance at this level, the price briefly fell back to US$88,000, but then rebounded back above US$90,000. Mainly driven by the increase in inflows from the US Bitcoin ETF, it adjusted back to US$88,000 for consolidation early this morning. The reason behind this is also There is nothing special. When the price rises too much, investors begin to take profits, and the profits are settled on large positions. That is why the price of Bitcoin fluctuates so much.
However, investors don’t need to worry too much. It’s still just an initial short-term correction, because the increase in Bitcoin is still greater than that of most competitive coins, which means that funds are still pouring in and there is no spillover. The usual phenomenon at the end of a bull market is that the market cannot rise. Funds have shifted to speculation in small and medium-sized cryptocurrencies, and only then do investors have to consider whether to take profits and wait for the next wave of corrections.
SEC regulatory relaxation is the next market theme
Interestingly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released in the United States this week was in line with expectations. The overall index and the core index excluding energy and food increased by 0.2% monthly, and the annual growth rates were 2.6% and 3.3% respectively, which did not bring market excitement. surprise. But Bitcoin prices still fell back after the data was released, sliding from $93,000 to $88,000, mainly due to excessive price increases and some traders choosing to take profits.
The market generally believes that no matter what the price index is, a correction after a sharp rise is inevitable. The current market is driven by emotions and driven by the high atmosphere of "Trump trading". Bitcoin's short-term trend shows high volatility and continues to rise. Bitcoin prices have oscillated past $5,000 this week, reflecting frequent exchanges of chips, but buying power remains strong.
As Trump is finalizing cabinet candidates, market traders are focusing on "when Trump will select the SEC chairman", that is, firing Gary Gensler, who has always been strict in regulating cryptocurrencies. Trump can be expected to do so as soon as he steps down. Choosing another cryptocurrency-friendly head of the regulatory agency will promote the rapid development of the cryptocurrency industry in the United States. The community is now looking forward to Chris Giancarlo taking over the position of SEC Chairman.
Chris, the former chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is known as the "Father of Cryptocurrency." His biggest achievement during his tenure was to clearly define Bitcoin and Ethereum as "digital commodities" rather than securities, and successfully established the basis for subsequent spot ETF commodities. Listed trading has laid a key foundation. If he comes to power, he may also classify more cryptocurrencies as "non-securities", thereby triggering a rising offensive of altcoins.
Although he has posted on Community A popular candidate for spot ETF, it was previously reported that Gary Gensler was about to resign. The market is optimistic that the XRP ETF may really appear, which also makes its currency price continue to rise.
The current trading situation in the crypto market is excellent, and it is difficult for us to know whether it has reached a top, but we believe that until the Trump cabinet determines who the SEC chairman is, the market has sufficient room for imagination to push up the price of the crypto market. Bitcoin is just We can look forward to the first major rise in the subsequent growth of alternative coins and small and medium-sized cryptocurrencies. The fourth quarter of this year will be a very fruitful quarter.
Review of last week [MICA RESEARCH] Will Bitcoin continue to rise? "2 big profits" support, it is recommended to increase the amount every time
Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.
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"[MICA RESEARCH] The market is too crazy, crypto investors can adjust appropriately." This article was first published on (Block Guest).
