The current sentiment and price action in the Bitcoin market can send some interesting signals:
Market sentiment contrarian indicator
1. The sentiment is generally bearish:
Most community and forum participants are bearish, including those who have opened short positions and are still holding them, as well as those who hope that Bitcoin will pull back before buying in. This consistency may reflect the "herd effect".
When market sentiment is too consistent, it can often form a reverse signal. For example, if everyone thinks the market will fall, shorts may have been overexploited, potential selling pressure is reduced, and prices are more likely to rise.
2. Long positions are not fully activated:
Even those who are bullish want to wait for lower prices before buying in. This suggests that mainstream funds may not have fully entered the market. Once these potential buyers feel the risk of "missing out", they may choose to chase high prices, thereby pushing prices up further.
Spot ETFs sold but prices firmed
1. There is strong buying in the market:
Although spot ETFs have been selling in the past two days, prices have continued to rise steadily, indicating that new funds are continuously entering the market.
Possible sources of buying include:
Institutional investors: While ETFs are selling, other funds may be buying through the OTC or spot market.
Whales or market makers: Large funds may attract retail investors by driving prices up.
2. Pricing power shifts from ETFs:
If cash ETFs experience outflows but prices are unaffected, this could be a sign that ETF influence is waning and that derivatives markets or spot exchanges elsewhere in the world are driving prices.
Technical Signals from Price Action
1. High sideways and slowly rising:
The price is sideways at a high level and continues to rise, indicating that the market's acceptance of high prices is increasing. This is usually a strong signal in a bull market because buying power is gradually absorbing selling pressure.
2. Hints of strong support:
Despite the negative factors of outflow, the price did not pull back significantly, indicating that the support below is strong. This may be because bulls are currently very firm in their expectations for future increases.
The signal interpreted
1. Further rise is possible in the short term:
Current market sentiment and price behavior indicate that the power of short sellers may be gradually exhausted, while potential buying power is accumulating. Once the funds that missed the opportunity enter the market, prices may rise rapidly.
2. Be aware of the risk of being tempted to buy more:
The market may take advantage of the bearish sentiment to conduct a "short squeeze". However, after a rapid rise, prices may fluctuate sharply or pull back in the short term.
Recommendations
1. Trend following strategy:
The current market trend is still relatively strong, so you can consider going with the flow and being cautiously bullish, but you must set a good stop loss point.
2. Observe the funding rate and key resistance:
If funding rates continue to rise and prices break through key resistance (such as recent highs), the bullish logic will be further strengthened.
3. Beware of callback risks:
A sudden drop in volume or a break of key support levels, such as the daily moving average, could signal a weakening trend.
You need to make operational decisions based on your risk appetite, financial status and real-time market changes. $BTC