The performance of Bitcoin ETFs on traditional exchanges is excellent.
However, there is a negative signal, even if paradoxically it could even be interpreted as a positive signal.
The issue seems complex, but it is not at all. However, it is necessary to clearly distinguish between the two things.
The trend of Bitcoin ETFs
The spot Bitcoin ETFs landed on the U.S. exchanges on January 11th of this year.
In the first two weeks, they actually recorded overall net outflows, but only because Grayscale had BTC in cash for years to liquidate. The Grayscale Bitcoin Fund was created a decade ago, but not as an ETF. It was transformed into an ETF only in January, and only since then has it been able to liquidate the excess BTC.
However, starting from the end of January, the ETFs on Bitcoin began to record overall net inflows, up to the peak in March, when BTC recorded its new all-time high price.
Since then, a long period of descending lateralization began, concluding at the beginning of September.
At that point, the course reversed, and they began to record continuous overall net inflows.
Just to say that on September 8th they all together held just over a million BTC, while now they have reached about 1,200.
The negative signal
However, this trend has not been linear. Even from September 9 to today, there have been some brief trend reversals, such as the one at the beginning of October, when outflows were recorded for four consecutive days.
The recent trend is mirroring that of the past months.
From the stock market session of October 28 to that of October 31, all days recorded overall net inflows.
Then, however, before the USA presidential elections, they recorded three days of outflows, including the election day (November 5th).
On November 6, the news of Donald Trump’s victory spread, and the so-called Trump Trade began.
At that point, the ETFs on Bitcoin recorded six consecutive trading sessions with overall net inflows, also marking the largest single daily inflow on November 7, with more than 1.3 billion dollars.
However, this positive streak was interrupted yesterday.
In theory, yesterday’s -400 million dollars should be a negative signal, but there are those who believe it should instead be interpreted as a positive signal.
The segnale positivo
The fact is that, over the course of the year, every time there has been a total outflow exceeding 400 million dollars, the price of BTC has stopped falling.
Therefore, although yesterday’s data remains in all respects a negative signal, it could also be interpreted instead as a positive signal for what will happen from today onwards.
On the other hand, the Trump Trade has ended, but it is not certain that the growth of Bitcoin has also ended.
The negative signal from yesterday only highlights that the Trump Trade ended yesterday, but it actually says nothing about the future.
A positive factor, however, is the drop in the Dollar Index, which fell from 107 points to 106.5.
To tell the truth, already after the previous elections won by Trump, in November 2016, the Dollar Index rose for about ten days after his victory, only to slightly decrease, but then it rose again for the entire first half of December. The long post-election decline began only in early January 2017.
Therefore, since Bitcoin tends to be inversely correlated to the Dollar Index, there might still be a few days of growth, which, however, might not last long.
The forecast on the trend of ETF and Bitcoin (BTC) price
Despite this, if Monday should mark the end of the current bull phase of Bitcoin, it does not mean that another one cannot be triggered.
On the other hand, the growth in this first half of November has been sensational, so it would be more than reasonable to expect a slowdown, if not even a correction.
The most important price level, in the current state of affairs, seems to be $82,000, a figure that was not even approached during yesterday’s correction.
If it manages to stay above this threshold next week as well, and until the end of the month, in December it might also have the strength to make another rise, perhaps towards $100,000.
