Let's look at the market review first. BTC pulled back around 5,000 points during the European session last night. Lao Li also gave a tip here yesterday. If 9w is not completely stabilized, it will fall below the short-term support of 88,000 and wait for the end of the pullback to be bullish. It entered the market near 87,000 yesterday and exited at 88,220. Back to the current price of BTC at 89,026, observe that the MACD24 bar chart gradually moves downward, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening. The daily Bollinger Bands fell below the upper track and returned to the range yesterday. Since the position of 58,900, the BTC price has been in the middle and upper track for a month. Many friends will have questions when they are chasing the rise. When will the pullback come? Lao Li's judgment is that the recent rounds of pullbacks are just the beginning. There will definitely be a big and deep pullback before the interest rate cut in December. While the market is looking at the bulls, the dealers can also see that they are not philanthropists, but only focus on survival and development. For institutions, how can they talk about profits without waterfalls? That's it. Those who still don't understand, think deeply about it!
Powell hinted that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and the market lowered its expectations for a rate cut in December. On November 14, local time, Fed Chairman Powell said at a Dallas Fed event that the U.S. economy has not sent any signal that the Fed needs to cut interest rates as soon as possible, and the current strong economy has given the Fed a basis for cautious decision-making.
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"We are gradually shifting policy to a more neutral stance." Powell said the path to achieve this goal is not a pre-set route, and the path of the policy interest rate depends on subsequent data and changes in the economic outlook. Reducing policy restrictions too quickly may hinder inflation progress, while reducing policy restrictions too slowly may excessively weaken economic activity and employment.
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Powell pointed out that the labor market remains robust, but has gradually cooled down from the obvious overheating a few years ago, and has now cooled down to the point where it is no longer a source of major inflationary pressure. After Powell's speech, the market lowered its expectations for a rate cut in December (you can recall that in the article on the 9th, Lao Li mentioned that there would definitely be no rate cut in December. This is a smokescreen, a trick used by the Americans, but it is enough to cause negative fluctuations in the market in the short term, which is just right for short-term users). You can still capture profits from short-term pullbacks, but it is still recommended that you do not hold positions overnight, and the same applies to large positions. Small positions should not be held for a long time, and short positions can make a profit of 500-800 points.
BTC strategy: short above 89400, take profit around 88900-88600, and look at the area around 8800. After the callback ends, you can enter the market according to the situation.
