Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the psychological barrier of $90,000 on November 12. That day, it traded at a new record high of $93,265. However, as of this writing, the king coin is trading at $87,757, having lost 6% of its value over the past two days.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin has seen a decline due to increased profit-taking, mainly from short-term investors. As these short-term investors rush to secure profits, the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 in the short term becomes increasingly dim.
Short-Term Investors Are Market Movers
TinTucBitcoin's analysis of Bitcoin Spend Out Age Bands (SOAB) provides insight into investor behavior. The metric categorizes Bitcoin Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) by age and tracks their spending activity. Bitcoin UTXOs represent the number of coins a user has available to spend and are tracked on the network as inputs for new transactions.
BTC SOAB analysis provides insight into market sentiment and potential price moves. For example, an increase in the younger bands typically indicates increased trading activity and profit-taking from short-term investors (those holding coins for less than 30 days). This has been the case in the BTC market since it first broke above $90,000 on Wednesday.
Bitcoin holders who held their coins for just one day moved 1.146 million BTC that day, the highest in two months, according to CryptoQuant data. Those who held their coins for one to seven days moved 135,950 BTC, while those who held them for seven to 30 days moved 32,021 BTC.
Bitcoin Spending Lifespan Ranges. Source: CryptoQuant
An increase in spending by coin holders in less than a month typically signals that new, short-term investors are selling or moving their BTC. This indicates increased profit-taking or decreased confidence among recent buyers, which often creates selling pressure and contributes to short-term price volatility.
Long Term Investors Hold The Market
Notably, long-term Bitcoin investors, those who hold coins for more than 12 months, have taken a different approach. While there have been some coin fluctuations, they have been relatively minimal.
Bitcoin Spending Lifespan Ranges. Source: CryptoQuant
This suggests that since Bitcoin crossed $90,000, price movements have been largely driven by short-term investors eager to take quick profits.
BTC Price Forecast: What to Watch Out For
Short-term investors hold a significant portion of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Therefore, a sustained spike in selling activity from this group of investors could put downward pressure on the coin. BTC could fall further from $90,000 if the selling trend continues.
According to the Fibonacci Retracement tool, if this scenario occurs, BTC's next price target is $83,792. If this level fails to hold, BTC could slide below the $80,000 mark to trade at $76,356.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
However, if short-term investors do not continue to sell, this negative forecast will be invalidated. This will increase the possibility of Bitcoin price breaking above $90,000. It could recover to the record level of $93,256 and even head towards the $100,000 mark.
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