In the latest market report from venture capital firm QCP, analysts pointed out that the recent rise in Bitcoin prices was not dominated by expectations for the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, but was significantly affected by macroeconomic factors, including supply estimates from the U.S. Treasury Department , and market expectations that the Federal Reserve may end its monetary tightening actions.
(Same view: Bitcoin’s surge is not due to spot ETFs, but to U.S. debt)
Why Bitcoin’s rise has nothing to do with ETF expectations
In recent days, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed a steady increase in the price of Bitcoin. Analysts at QCP noted in a market update that the trend appears to be driven primarily by macroeconomic dynamics and less to do with market expectations for a spot Bitcoin ETF. The report mentioned that the U.S. Treasury's first-quarter supply estimate was lower than expected, coupled with the market's expectation of a dovish stance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which led to a decline in bond yields and further stimulated the value of risk assets.
Is it difficult for Bitcoin to fall below 32K?
QCP analysts are on the fence about whether a new upward trend in global stocks and bonds will begin, but are optimistic about the prospects of the digital asset market, believing that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $32,000 unless there is new regulatory pressure.
According to The Block, Max Shannon of CoinShares Research believes that part of Bitcoin’s recent upward momentum comes from the unoptimistic U.S. salary data, which makes investors tend to regard Bitcoin as a safe haven. Shannon also believes that the Federal Reserve's recent pause in raising interest rates and its less hawkish remarks suggest that interest rates may have reached a peak, and risk assets have therefore received support.
Bitcoin ETF push theory
Still, market expectations for a spot Bitcoin ETF are still a big factor driving Bitcoin prices higher, according to Ryze Labs partner Matthew Graham.
He emphasized that many traditional financial companies support this argument. In addition, Ruslan Lienkh, head of marketing at YouHodler, mentioned that investors seem to be following the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" investment model.
Against the backdrop of growing market confidence, Michael Dunn, president of Bitnomial Exchange, noted that open interest in the futures and options markets has reached an all-time high and volatility in the market is at a minimum, indicating that the market may be preparing for further gains.
This article Macroeconomic factors drive Bitcoin higher, analysts: Bitcoin unlikely to fall below $32,000 first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.
