In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the passage of a Bitcoin Reserve in the US is unlikely. While he said such a law would boost Bitcoin to $500,000, Novogratz believes that President Donald Trump will not have enough support in the Senate.
The odds on Polymarket also indicate that the chance of approval is very low. However, some are betting that Trump could achieve this very quickly after taking office.
The Pessimistic Argument for a Bitcoin Reserve
In fact, during the interview, Novogratz sounded pessimistic about the chances of a US Bitcoin Reserve being created. While he has repeatedly spoken about his high hopes for friendly regulation, he doesn’t see a clear path to that campaign promise. There are simply too many obstacles between the federal government and regular Bitcoin purchases.
“It’s a low probability. While Republicans control the Senate, they don’t have close to 60 seats. I think it would be very smart for the United States to use the Bitcoin that they have and maybe add a little bit more… I don’t necessarily think the dollar needs anything to back it up,” Novogratz said.
Read more: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
To be clear, he also emphasized that such a Reserve would be beneficial for the cryptocurrency, predicting that it would push the price to $500,000. However, Novogratz does not believe that the existing support is enough.
Senator Cynthia Lummis has garnered bipartisan support for her Bitcoin Reserve bill, and some state representatives are also supporting the act. However, these supporters are few and far between.
It will take more than a few elected officials to push through such a sweeping policy. For example, Novogratz has also recently engaged in a social media spat with Senator Elizabeth Warren, the well-known Bitcoin critic.
Although the anti-crypto faction in the US legislature weakened substantially in the last election, it has not yet been defeated. Even Trump's own party may not unite in full support of the bill.
Polymarket forecasts are also low
The odds on Polymarket, meanwhile, agree with Novogratz’s pessimistic predictions. The decentralized prediction market recently gained credibility after successfully predicting Trump’s victory, and claims that the US Bitcoin Reserve has only a 33% chance of happening.
However, the only active bet is whether Trump will fulfill his promise in the first 100 days, not throughout his term.
Read more: Polymarket: complete guide to the prediction and betting platform
Bitcoin Reserve Odds on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket
In fact, there is still a possibility that a Bitcoin Reserve bill could be passed at some point during Trump’s four-year term. Lummis’ bill already has bipartisan support, and the U.S. electorate is becoming more crypto-friendly.
Several Democrats could vote in favor, or the midterm elections could bring new pro-crypto victories. However, this could take some time.
The article US Bitcoin Reserves Are Hardly Going to Pass, Says Novogratz appeared first on BeInCrypto Brasil.
