As soon as the CPI was released yesterday, it was a big positive. The price of Bitcoin jumped from 87,000 to 93,000 in one breath. I also said in yesterday's video that nothing can stop the upward trend at present. It is basically unstoppable without major events. If this wave of CPI data is not good, then the air force may make a fuss, but it is unexpectedly good. Once it breaks through 9w, the next major barrier is the integer 10w barrier. This is estimated to encounter some resistance. I estimate that there will be many orders hanging at 10w.
So what stage are we at now?
In fact, from the weekly chart, there are only 3 consecutive positive lines! In history, there have been many weekly lines with 5 consecutive positive lines, 6 consecutive positive lines, and even 7 consecutive positive lines. For example, in October of 2023, there were 8 consecutive positive lines, and in 2021, there were 7 consecutive positive lines, and 4 super 4 consecutive positive lines with very high energy levels. And after 2 weeks of adjustment, there were 3 super super weekly 3 consecutive positive lines with energy levels twice as high as this. So it is enough to prove that the bull market has just opened a gap! The subsequent bull market may be even more violent!
The current daily trading volume of Bitcoin is 18 billion US dollars, and the average daily trading volume in April 2021 was 50 billion US dollars (only spot trading, not contracts), so it has not yet reached the peak of trading in 2021, and the trading volume of this bull market will definitely exceed that of 2021. Why? We know that the last wave was bullish for institutions, but this wave is bullish for institutions + government!
So this bull market may come faster and more violently, and even crazier!!!
Evidence 1: Institutions have stronger purchasing power
In the last round, institutions were bullish. We know that many large institutions have started to buy Bitcoin. So which institutions are they? Let’s sort them out first:
1. MicroStrategy
- Purchases: In August 2020, MicroStrategy first purchased 21,454 BTC worth approximately $250 million. Since then, MicroStrategy has continued to increase its holdings of Bitcoin in 2020 and 2021. As of mid-2021, its Bitcoin holdings have exceeded 100,000 BTC, with a total value of nearly $3 billion.
- Total holdings: As of 2021, MicroStrategy holds approximately 124,946 BTC.
2. Tesla
- Purchase quantity: In February 2021, Tesla announced the purchase of $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, approximately 42,902 BTC.
3. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)
- Amount purchased: By early 2021, the amount of Bitcoin under management by GBTC exceeded 650,000 BTC.
4. Galaxy Digital
- Purchase status: As of 2021, Galaxy Digital has held approximately 16,402 BTC.
5. Square (now Block, Inc.)
- Purchase quantity: In October 2020, Square announced the purchase of $5 million worth of Bitcoin, approximately 4,709 BTC. Subsequently, Square continued to increase its holdings of Bitcoin in 2021.
- Total holdings: As of mid-2021, Square holds approximately 8,000 BTC.
6. Paul Tudor Jones
- Purchases: The exact amount purchased was not disclosed, but his investment in Bitcoin is estimated to be in the billions of dollars.
7. Fidelity Investments
- Purchase quantity: Fidelity is one of the world's largest asset management companies. Fidelity provides Bitcoin custody services through its subsidiary Fidelity Digital Assets and may hold a large amount of Bitcoin, but the specific amount held is not disclosed.
8. Coinbase
- Purchase quantity: Although Coinbase's Bitcoin is mainly used for platform operations, data shows that in 21 years, Coinbase held 400,000-460,000 BTC, with a value of 14 billion.
9. Jack Dorsey (founder of Twitter and Square)
- Purchase quantity: His company Square and his personal Bitcoin investments together hold thousands of Bitcoins.
10. Well-known institutions such as Paul Tudor Jones and ARK Invest have also increased their investment in Bitcoin during this bull market, but the specific amount of Bitcoin purchased has not been publicly disclosed. However, according to various reports and analyses, many large funds and hedge funds may hold a smaller amount of Bitcoin, with a total amount of between 10,000 BTC and 50,000 BTC.
I also asked ChatGPT to help me estimate how much Bitcoin institutions purchased during the bull market in 2021. The estimated result is about 1.26 million to 1.36 million coins. If converted into cash (based on a conservative calculation of US$40,000, most institutions should be below this price), the maximum estimated total value is about US$50 billion.
Now let's take a look at the current purchasing power of institutions. This time, ETFs have been added. From the ETF data table below, we can see that the current purchasing power of ETFs is 1-2 billion per day. So if I assume 22 working days a month, it is 22-44 billion. So the volume for 2-3 months must be at the level of 100 billion US dollars. This is just the statistics of the ETF level.
Evidence 2. Trump’s National Bitcoin Reserve
We have said before that Trump wants to build a Bitcoin reserve and buy 1 million coins, which is the same as the amount purchased by all institutions in 2021. Does that mean the US government will buy 40 billion to 50 billion US dollars at once? I have studied it carefully and it may be more.
First, let’s take a look at where these more than 200,000 bitcoins in the United States came from?
In the United States, the main agencies responsible for confiscating crypto assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) are the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), especially its Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), as well as the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). In addition, the Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation (IRS-CI) and the United States Secret Service (USSS) of the U.S. Treasury Department also play an important role in confiscating crypto assets. The following are the functions of each major agency:
1. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI): Responsible for combating cybercrime and crimes involving crypto assets such as Bitcoin. The FBI often seizes illegally obtained Bitcoin in criminal cases.
2. Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation (IRS-CI): Responsible for investigating cases involving tax crimes, including cryptocurrency-related tax evasion, money laundering and other activities, and can seize Bitcoin assets related to tax fraud.
3. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI): Mainly deal with cases such as transnational crime, money laundering and drug smuggling, and the funds involved include cryptocurrencies.
4. United States Secret Service (USSS): In addition to protecting national leaders, it is also responsible for combating financial crimes, including cryptocurrency-related fraud, counterfeiting, and money laundering.
5. DOJ Asset Forfeiture Fund and US Marshals Service: After the case is closed, the Department of Justice will transfer the confiscated cryptocurrency assets to the Marshals Service for management and auction. The proceeds from the auction will be added to the Asset Forfeiture Fund to support law enforcement activities.
When conducting forfeiture operations, these agencies typically seize and hold cryptocurrency assets after obtaining permission from the court.
Then according to what Trump said, this Bitcoin reserve is most likely under the U.S. Department of Justice. The data I found is that the U.S. Department of Justice's annual fiscal budget is 39.7 billion U.S. dollars. Isn't this a coincidence? It's exactly the same as the value of 1 million Bitcoins. And if you use the 4-year fiscal budget to buy Bitcoin (160 billion-200 billion, because the fiscal budget needs to increase every year), push it up and then slowly ship it out, then you might make money. Of course, this is just speculation! So it's not impossible to say that BTC will reach 600,000 US dollars last time. The 4 times purchasing power of institutions + the 4 times purchasing power of the government means 8 times the space, which is currently 90,000 US dollars. Please calculate it yourself. (Bitcoin stands at 80,000 US dollars. Is this bull market estimated to be 600,000 to 1.5 million US dollars?)
Finally, no matter what, the purchasing power of institutions and governments in this round must be much higher than the previous wave. Last time, institutions such as MicroStrategy and Grayscale appeared, and this time, the real super whale BlackRock and the world’s top government, the United States, have paid attention, so this round of bull market will be even more violent. Let us wait and see!
