Today, cryptocurrency and stock markets are showing unusual stability amid the expected Fed rate cut. Bitcoin is holding near $89,664, and the fear index is reaching 88 points.

What's happening?

* Unexpected stability: Despite the upcoming speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the release of inflation data, markets are showing surprising composure.
* Bitcoin on the rise: The flagship of the crypto market continues to grow, but experts warn of a possible imminent pullback to the levels of $86,000 - $85,000.

Stock markets showed no dynamics yesterday. S&P 500 closed with a micro plus of 0.02%, Nasdaq with minus 0.16%, Dow Jones in the plus by 0.11%.
The situation is not typical for the day of the CPI release. But it is understandable.

There is no reason to fall - the CPI is within the forecast, and the probability of a rate cut in December has increased to 86% (by 26% at once).

But there are no reasons for growth either - the positive from Trump's victory has already been worked out, the Fed's rate cuts twice before the end of the year were also priced into the market, indices have repeatedly updated their highs, and the dollar index, which has been at its highs since October 2022, makes you think about what is happening - with such a dollar index, the markets should move in a completely different direction. This cannot continue for long - either stock indices will go down, or the dollar index.

Today at 15:30 Kyiv will release data on industrial inflation (PPI) and data on the labor market.

And at 22-00 Kyiv Powell will speak. Perhaps the anomaly with the stock market and the dollar index will be resolved. It will also be interesting to see what Powell's rhetoric will be in the new reality.

Key events of the day:

* Powell's speech: The Fed chief's speech could be a key event for markets as investors await further guidance on monetary policy.
* Inflation and labor market data: Data released today could impact investor expectations for future Fed policy decisions.

What the experts say:

* Meme Coin Rise: The trend of meme coins such as PEPE and WIF growing in popularity continues.
* Cryptocurrency Market Euphoria: After breaking the $80,000 mark, there is growing enthusiasm around Bitcoin.
* South Korea: Retail cryptocurrency trading volume in South Korea significantly exceeds stock market trading volume.

Risks and prospects:

* Bitcoin Correction: Experts expect Bitcoin to correct to $86,000 – $85,000 levels.
* Strong Dollar: Continued strengthening of the US dollar could have a negative impact on markets.
* Cryptocurrency regulation: Investigation into Polymarket platform could raise new concerns about cryptocurrency regulation.

Conclusion:

Despite the positive market sentiment, experts warn of possible risks. Investors are advised to exercise caution and monitor the news.

Interesting facts:
- Retail cryptocurrency trading volume in South Korea is 85% higher than stock market trading volume.
- Bitcoin's capitalization has overtaken Saudi Aramco's capitalization.
- The Coinbase app is ranked#1in the Finance category and#13in the entire App Store.
Euphoria? Yes, everything is as I said here - after 80K, euphoria will start around Bitcoin. But Ethereum has everything ahead. We'll talk about alts separately, everything is a bit more complicated there).

From the negative.
- Polymarket, which gained maximum popularity during the US elections and is now planning to issue a token, is under investigation by the Ministry of Justice.

This does not pose any particular threat to the market, but it somehow does not fit with the image of the crypto capital of the world. However, all this can be blamed on the old team, which wants to make something last.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.