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In recent days, Bitcoin (BTC) has been recording a series of price records, reaching an unprecedented value of US$ 90 thousand on Tuesday morning (12). In reais, the largest cryptocurrency on the market surpassed the half million mark, a new all-time high.
Some industry experts believe that the digital asset has the potential to reach US$100,000 this year. Bets on prediction markets, which gained popularity after predicting President Donald Trump's victory in this year's election, also show that investors are optimistic about the digital currency.
The main drivers continue to be the victory of the Republican candidate, who recently embraced the cryptocurrency sector and said he would transform the US into a BTC “superpower”; the country’s positive economic data; and the increased interest in cryptocurrencies, both from investors and retail investors.
“With 50 days left in the year, the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is more realistic than ever. With BTC setting new all-time highs, the bullish momentum is supported by both institutional interest and the context of inflation and the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies,” said Matias Part, analyst at Bitget.
In Brazil, according to Paula Reis, a CNPI-T analyst and partner at Ripio, the crypto will continue to break historic highs in reais, as long as the dollar continues to rise. “For Bitcoin, I see R$480,000 as a support to be tested in a technical correction of the currency. The target is R$590,000, which represents a 20% increase in the current price.”
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Rivers of money
Crypto optimism can be seen in the trading volumes of US BTC spot ETFs (index funds). On Monday (12), the products raised a total of US$1.1 billion, the second-highest amount recorded since January, when they were launched, according to data from the SoSoValue platform.
The highlight is the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), an ETF from investment giant BlackRock, which yesterday alone attracted US$756.6 million. Due to the recent influx of money, IBIT surpassed the iShares Gold ETF (IAU), the manager's own gold ETF, in assets under management. The crypto product has US$39.2 billion, while the gold fund has US$32.4 billion, according to data on the company's website.
“The buying euphoria seems to be specifically located in cryptocurrency and not in the risk market. So when we look at this scenario, it is a clear sign of strong investor demand for BTC and not for risk,” said Beto Fernandes, an analyst at Foxbit. “Each market cycle reaffirms that Bitcoin does not seek external validation — it simply cannot be stopped,” said Guilherme Sacamone, country manager at OKX Brazil.
Optimism about cryptocurrencies has even spread to renowned firms in the Brazilian market. Verde Asset Management, a fund manager led by industry veteran Luis Stuhlberger, said this week in a note to clients that it had built a small position in Bitcoin ahead of the US elections.
Prediction markets
Prediction markets have already created bets on BItcoin's performance this year. On Polymarket, a platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of future events, the poll “Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?” (Bitcoin will reach US$ 100 thousand in 2024, translated into Portuguese), has already reached US$ 3.1 million.
Within Polymarket, users place bets by purchasing “yes” or “no” tokens, which represent the possible outcomes of future events. If the chosen outcome actually comes to fruition, the person can exchange these cryptocurrencies for the amount proportional to the total bet. On Tuesday afternoon, 56% of bettors were betting on the possibility of BTC reaching US$100,000 by the end of December.
In the Kalshi prediction market, which works in a similar way to Polymarket, the scenario is more divided. Among the participants, 68% believe that crypto will remain at US$90,000 this year, 48% are targeting US$100,000 and 6% are even more optimistic and suggest an increase of up to US$150,000 this year.
Prediction markets have gained traction in recent days because they began suggesting a likely Trump victory several weeks before the election results, even when traditional opinion polls said the race was tied. They argue, however, that they should not be viewed as opinion polls because they only measure the likelihood of an event occurring, not the percentage of people interested in taking action.
Alert
It is important to always emphasize that cryptocurrencies are considered high-risk assets, mainly due to their high volatility. Therefore, experts often suggest that investors carefully evaluate the crypto industry and only allocate resources that are not essential for daily life to digital assets.