S2F model predicts that Bitcoin's value increases as its scarcity rises.
Each halving reduces BTC supply by half, doubling the S2F ratio and making BTC more scarce.
🔹 The 6-18 Rule: A Simple Yet Powerful Strategy 💡
Entry: Buy 6 months before each Bitcoin halving.
Exit: Sell 18 months after the halving.
🟢 Why it works: Historically, the 6-18 rule has consistently outperformed buy-and-hold by capturing the post-halving surge and avoiding price declines.
🔹 Historical Performance: Quantifying the 6-18 Rule 📊
2016 Halving Cycle:
6-Month Pre-Halving Price: ~$400
18-Month Post-Halving Peak: ~$20,000
Profit with 6-18 Rule: 5,000% gain 🚀
2020 Halving Cycle:
6-Month Pre-Halving Price: ~$7,000
18-Month Post-Halving Peak: ~$69,000
Profit with 6-18 Rule: 885% gain 📈
🔹 Why the S2F 6-18 Rule Works
Predictable Scarcity: Halvings reliably reduce Bitcoin’s supply, creating supply shocks.
Market Hype: The crypto space anticipates each halving event, leading to massive price momentum.
Outperformance of Buy & Hold: This strategy maximizes gains while avoiding later cycle corrections, allowing investors to "sell the top."
🔹 Is This Strategy Still Relevant? 🤔
Next Halving (2024): Analysts expect another cycle of exponential gains, potentially reaching new highs.
Current Price: ~$86,000
Potential Peak Post-Halving: If history rhymes, we could see BTC cross $150,000+ within 18 months after the 2024 halving.
TL;DR: The 6-18 Rule Based on Stock-to-Flow Has Outperformed Buy & Hold Consistently!
🚀 Buy 6 months before each halving, sell 18 months after, and let the S2F magic work.
