Why Vance warns Europe not to provoke Musk, I believe it's to prepare for his own presidential campaign. Trump will be 82 by the end of this term and will definitely not run for the next. Therefore, Vance is the most likely candidate the Republican Party will put forward, and he will surely need a big financial backer. Musk is undoubtedly the most suitable and the wealthiest.
Vance has begun to carefully strategize behind the scenes, frequently meeting with core members of the party to explain his strategy of winning the election by leveraging Musk's influence. On one hand, he is showing goodwill towards Musk through various channels, arranging private meetings where he outlines a political blueprint to Musk, emphasizing that if elected, he will provide great support to Musk's business empire in areas such as technology policy, for example, by easing regulatory restrictions on emerging tech sectors and increasing support for space exploration and related industries. On the other hand, he is actively lobbying within the Republican Party, stressing the key role of Musk's economic power and social influence for electoral success, seeking party recognition and support for his strategy. At the same time, he is intentionally or unintentionally revealing a possible collaboration with Musk in the media, attracting public attention, enhancing his image and competitiveness in the eyes of the public, paving the way for his campaign, and laying the groundwork for securing more campaign funding and resources.