Although Trump will take 2 months to officially assume office after being elected, his victory's impact is already widely reflected in geopolitics and capital markets. Cryptocurrency has once again become the focus, with BTC prices surpassing $80,000 while voting is still ongoing in some regions of the U.S. Additionally, Blackrock's BTC ETF (IBIT) set a record for single-day fund inflow at $1.1 billion last Thursday, and even the ETH ETF experienced its third-highest single-day fund inflow in history.
As of this year, IBIT's fund inflow ranks third among all U.S.-listed ETFs, with assets under management exceeding iShares' own gold ETF, surpassing $33 billion. During this surge, centralized exchanges (CEX) cleared over $800 million in short futures positions in the past week, marking one of the largest short liquidations this year. Meanwhile, with the return of leveraged funds in large quantities, the funding rate for perpetual contracts has soared to around 30%.
Moreover, despite soft on-chain activity, inflows from traditional finance have become a stable support factor. The market capitalization of stablecoins has steadily rebounded this year, returning close to the historical highs of 2022. Further inflows into stablecoins should provide more margin funding, and as prices continue to rebound, leverage is expected to remain.
From a political perspective, considering that the incoming government is more inclined to support cryptocurrency legislation, the industry is becoming increasingly optimistic about the emergence of a more favorable regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the future.
Returning to the macro market, the U.S. stock market has ignored disappointing Chinese stimulus policies and continues to hit new highs, while the fixed income market remains stable due to the dovish stance of last Thursday's FOMC meeting. Additionally, as the market is expected to maintain a risk-on mode before the end of the year, the cross-asset volatility of macro assets has significantly decreased. On the other hand, with BTC breaking above $80,000, the volatility of BTC and ETH has slightly rebounded, and $100,000 call options have once again entered the market's focus.
This week, we will see the release of CPI data, and apart from that, there aren't many other important macroeconomic data points this month. Interestingly, market pricing reflects that the release of Nvidia's earnings report is a more significant risk event compared to the CPI or non-farm payroll reports, indicating that the market has more confidence in the Federal Reserve's stance, and there are no obvious negative catalysts in the market environment.
So, enjoy it while the party lasts, but still maintain cautious risk management. Good luck to everyone!
