A quick analysis of the circulating supply of $GRASS and other thoughts.
Author: Res
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Currently, the effective market cap of $GRASS is $275 million, and the actual circulating supply in the market is 37 million tokens, equivalent to $60 million (calculated at $1.60 each). This is important because cryptocurrencies are highly speculative assets, driven by momentum and with tight liquidity. The unlocked supply is 250 million tokens, including 150 million held by the DAO/foundation and 100 million for airdrops.
For 150 million tokens held by the DAO/foundation.
Of these, 28 million tokens have been staked at an annual yield of 52%. The rewards come from the treasury, meaning 15 million tokens are reserved for staking incentives. This constitutes the expected selling pressure in the first year, as no additional tokens will be unlocked before October 2025, and locked tokens do not generate rewards. Based on the current price of $1.60, the monthly selling pressure is approximately $2 million. This pressure is low, known, and fixed, and it is believed that the market will recognize this. The demand side remains unknown.
2. For 100 million tokens used for airdrops.
A total of 65 million have been claimed, out of 78 million distributed, leaving 13 million unclaimed, with another 22 million in an unknown state (a total of 35 million not in circulation). It's unclear why 78 million were distributed when the tokenomics indicated 100 million.
Thus, a total of 250 million tokens, minus the following parts:
35 million unclaimed or undistributed tokens.
15 million tokens for incentives (i.e., the selling pressure in the first year).
28 million staked tokens.
Thus, the actual circulating supply is 172 million tokens, with a total market cap of $275 million calculated at $1.60 each.
If we do not consider the additional 135 million tokens controlled by the DAO/foundation for growth purposes (*), the actual circulating supply is 37 million tokens, calculated at $1.60 each, with a market cap of $60 million.
(*) I think this is a reasonable assumption in the early stages, as the usage of these tokens may be negligible initially, but their impact will gradually become apparent over time with the implementation of different growth plans.
While investors typically make decisions based on market cap, understanding the details of circulating supply is more important in the cryptocurrency space. Because in this market, liquidity often has a greater impact than valuation, and everything is driven by momentum. Therefore, the current situation is:
The actual circulating supply is only 9-10%.
No new token emissions or unlocks will impact the market.
The circulating supply remains constant over the year, with 1.25 million tokens as rewards each month. This known selling pressure eliminates a significant degree of uncertainty.
Tokens appreciate in value as demand increases (through buybacks). While this may seem unremarkable, it's good news for market promotion.
As a new concept in the cryptocurrency space, this naturally sparks speculative interest. Although difficult to quantify, it is also an advantage.
Under these conditions, prices are likely to rise in the short term, so it is not surprising that GRASS tripled in a week and may continue to perform well. While fundamentals do matter in the long run, I am working to understand these fundamentals to make more informed decisions, but for now, I am still observing market trends.
Some 'fundamental' advantages I've noticed include:
Able to process 80 TB of data, almost scraping GTP-3 / 3.5 twice a day (which requires 45 TB of data for training).
Scraped nearly 1 billion minutes of multimodal data (including videos and images), for which the company paid a considerable amount.
Has 2.5 million daily active users and achieved rapid growth in just one year.
Has 2 million nodes.
The network is widely used by AI labs and has attracted attention from Fortune 500 companies.
Plans to be installed on mobile phones and collaborate with Xbox and Roku TV.
The CEO stated that demand for the network has reached nine-digit levels.
While I haven't verified all the information closely, it is clear this is a story that attracts a lot of attention. GRASS has solid data, a strong team, good partnerships, and the potential for massive growth. While we need to be cautious about active user metrics in the cryptocurrency space, the growth rate is indeed impressive. There are currently 2 million nodes, and if these nodes are truly being used by large companies, then this project may indeed have potential.
On the other hand, I've noticed some negative viewpoints, such as about $ALAR (Alarum Technologies). It's listed on NASDAQ, has more nodes, quarterly revenues exceeding $8 million, and a market cap of $88 million. By the way, their stock price trend looks like one of those altcoins launched by unreliable teams during market peaks, which is worth a look. However, I don't know much about this company; everyone can compare for themselves.
Moreover, scaling to tens of millions of nodes while maintaining decentralization will be a huge challenge, but our goal here is to trade this coin.
From a positive perspective, GRASS's advantages lie in: decentralization, web3 speculation, low circulating supply and low liquidity, along with social effects driven by market manipulators and key opinion leaders. Additionally, there are incentive mechanisms, positive feedback loops, and reflexivity promoting growth.