To be honest, I have to put a question mark on the article and viewpoint I posted on the 4th, to make a review record, because this market is really behaving too absurdly! What driving force has caused Bitcoin to rise directly to 80,000 without any pullback? Bull? Has the real bull market really begun?
Is this the change in institutional bull markets? In previous bull markets, before the crazy bull began, there would always be a large pullback to gather strength before skyrocketing, making everyone go crazy! This time there was no pullback at all, and my short position opened on the 7th has already suffered losses! This is really frustrating for me! This round of selling is definitely targeting old investors with certain historical experience in the crypto circle! Perhaps the new drivers have made money in these two days without thinking? It's been a week, and all that has exploded are short positions; during this time, I really haven't seen a pullback of 2500-3000 points or more. I believe many good brothers still insist that there will be a pullback! What is my viewpoint? I was stunned for two days; I took a good rest over the weekend, and today, on a day that is not a US stock trading day, it still shot up to 80,000! Musk and Trump did not go back on their word; they made it happen, saying that Bitcoin would reach 80,000 within a week of being elected president, and this was said when Bitcoin was still over 50,000!
So now let's calm down and think carefully, let's analyze what is different about the current bull market compared to the past? (Incomplete, my good brothers can leave comments in the comment area to supplement)
1. The previous bull market relied on the halving mechanism and the money of new investors to drive the market, allowing copycats to take off first, then the main force would come to pull up when new investors' dreams of getting rich were ignited! The current bull market does not necessarily rely on fooling new investors to create market sentiment to push prices up. It can go up without reason, without news, and still have the main force continuously pulling!
2. The buying power now is stronger than before; once it goes up, it may just keep going up without looking back, without needing elasticity!
3. Coins used to be cheaper, but now they are getting more and more expensive, becoming less affordable! (In the past, Bitcoin really only had emotional value; now Bitcoin has not only emotional value but is also a real asset. Does this mean that the opportunities for a pullback have decreased?)
4. There used to be fewer copycat VCs and many unknown copycats, now it has generally become more regulated! (The upper space for copycats is indeed not as large as before, and of course, due to VC issuance, the starting point already has a cost. In the past, copycats basically started with no cost. Before reaching 80,000, you could see a few small rounds of copycat dynamics, and indeed copycats are not as fierce as they used to be!)
5. Bitcoin control; the current operators controlling the market are completely different from before! The current operators are either constantly annoying or preparing to annoy! For contract traders, it is already impossible to make a super short-term profit through the market. Because at the super short-term level, it is difficult to see a specific small segment of a one-sided market, regardless of long or short; the current main force has a strong appetite and does not let anyone off! This is one of the reasons many older investors say that trading is not as easy as before.
6. In the past, the market was relatively peaceful in most parts of the world! There weren't daily conflicts everywhere; now wars are breaking out everywhere, and a single missile can affect operational sentiment, which is absurd! What exactly is driving the BTC market?
There are still many differences! Welcome good brothers to continue the discussion and share the differences between now and the past!
In any case, returning to the current market, I haven't dared to act these past two days! If I do, I still insist on being bearish! This kind of consistent upward movement without a pullback is unhealthy; instead, it could lead to a sharp drop! I dare not go long; although there seems to be no resistance above, the unexplored areas above are rising slowly!
I will continue to short with a stop loss! I firmly believe that there will still be one more pullback! If it rises another 5000 points to 85,000, I will reconsider whether to change my viewpoint! If it struggles to reach 82,000 or feels weak, I will definitely increase my short position!
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