The Era of Trump 2.0 Has Arrived: What Other Favorable Factors Are Ahead? How Do Various Parties View It?
On November 6, Trump successfully won the election, marking the official arrival of the 'Trump 2.0' era. His friendly attitude towards the crypto industry has once again ignited the market, with BTC hitting new highs, approaching $80,000, and altcoins experiencing a long-awaited surge.
Many are concerned whether the market has overheated, while investors who have already entered are more focused on future trends, even positioning themselves in advance for Trump's assumption of office next year. Below is a summary of the views from various institutions on future market trends, as well as potential favorable and risk factors:
1. Key Influencing Factors in the Crypto Market
1. Inflows of Spot Bitcoin ETF
On November 6, the trading volume of Bitcoin spot ETF exceeded $6 billion, with BlackRock's ETF daily trading volume surpassing $4.1 billion, setting a new record. On November 7, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.117 billion, the largest single-day inflow to date.
2. Start of Rate Cuts
On November 7, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.5%-4.75%. The market expects a 71% probability of another 25 basis point cut in December. JPMorgan predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates quarterly until the rate reaches 3.5%.
3. Favorable Policies and Regulatory Easing
Republican control of the Senate means more favorable crypto policies, which are expected to promote the implementation of the 'Bitcoin Act' and regulations for the stablecoin market. At the same time, companies like Coinbase and Bitwise believe that the future regulatory environment will be more transparent and beneficial for the development of crypto assets.
4. Improvement in Financial Environment
Following Trump's victory, Wall Street expects to drive crypto companies' IPOs, with firms like Kraken and Chainalysis likely to go public. In addition, the Bitcoin adoption rate is nearing the 8% threshold, marking an important moment towards mainstream acceptance.
Currently, mainstream views are optimistic about the future of the crypto market, believing that the bull market will continue. Meanwhile, bears are primarily concerned about the impact of Federal Reserve policies and economic inflation. However, at this moment, choosing to sell against the trend clearly does not align with the current market dynamics.
