I've been paying close attention to the election recently and haven't had the heart to update; now that the outcome is clear, I will immediately present a lengthy piece.
After today, Trump will become the most powerful president since Little Roosevelt. It was during Little Roosevelt's tenure that Fort Knox became the U.S. gold strategic reserve base, and Trump has also claimed to make Bitcoin the federal reserve asset of the United States.
In this U.S. election, Trump defeated Harris in the popular vote. As long as the electors remain loyal to the will of the voters, Trump has already secured more than half of the 538 electoral votes. Unless something unexpected happens, on January 6, 2025, Trump can return to his loyal White House.
Moreover, the Republican Party has already occupied 51 seats in the Senate, and the two parties in the House of Representatives are expected to form a balance of power. Even if the Republicans cannot gain control, the gap between the two sides is still within single digits. Benefiting from Trump's multiple nominations of Supreme Court justices during his first term, the ratio of conservative to liberal justices in the Supreme Court is currently stable at 6:3, which even surpasses that of President Little Roosevelt, as he did not fully control the Supreme Court.
The last time two non-consecutive elections occurred was 132 years ago during the Cleveland era. After November 5, the Wikipedia page will need to be modified, as Trump's historic second achievement has already been accomplished.
Looking back at the history of Rome, the Republican Party has become Trump's party, and the first unification of the three powers has given him a power base that previous U.S. presidents did not have. The last time Little Roosevelt laid the foundation for the dollar-gold alliance was until the Bretton Woods system collapsed. Will Bitcoin also open this historical process?
The institutionalization process of Web3 has begun.
In Eastern powerhouse nations, the system represents stability, while for Western powerhouses like Trump and Musk, the System and the Deep State represent decaying interest groups that need to be eliminated. Hence, Musk personally enters the fray, hoping to become the helmsman of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), adding new catfish and vitality outside the existing political correction mechanisms.
This is not a new idea. The birth of the FBI, the emergence of the IRS, and the establishment of the CIA are all new variables that cannot be sustained by existing routes. Therefore, the belief that cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin will truly change America is unnecessary. What we need to be concerned about is how the dollar and gold are being 'Americanized,' which is also referred to as institutionalization, where the new resistance forces are absorbed as part of the existing ruling order.
The end of the free dollar.
The issuance of the dollar has roughly gone through three stages: from the Continental currency during the War of Independence to the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913, from the gold standard from 1879 to 1944, and the era of fiat currency after the 1970s.
As early as the American Revolutionary War, the Continental Army began issuing dollars, but at that time, the dollar was more of a war bond. If you bet that the Continental Army would win, you just needed to hoard dollars. Later, during the Civil War, the federal government issued large amounts of 'greenback dollars' for the same reason, which had a strong war bond color, while the southern government issued cotton bonds. Ultimately, the industrialized dollar triumphed over the plantation owners' cotton.
Then came the Bretton Woods system associated with World War II, where the dollar was pegged to gold, and other countries' currencies were pegged to the dollar. This dual-pegging mechanism was essentially a gold standard mechanism. However, after Nixon announced that gold would no longer be redeemable for dollars, this system officially collapsed.
The above is the dollar history we are familiar with, but today's dollar is actually a voucher for U.S. Treasury bonds. The U.S. Treasury issues bonds, and the Federal Reserve buys them to issue dollars as reserve currency. The dual-currency mechanisms like Luna-UST are merely poor imitations.
The era of free banks with greenback dollars between the 1820s and the Civil War is no different from the current prosperity of cryptocurrencies. Many banks could issue banknotes independently, which essentially functioned as promissory notes. Even if the denominations of banknotes issued by different banks were the same, there were instances where they could not be exchanged. In the craziest times, there were once over 70,000 types of various 'dollars' in circulation.
To a certain extent, the chaos of the dollar system was also one of the inducements for the Civil War.
This chaos in issuing entities naturally cannot exist for long, just like today's regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies. If management is not conducted, even gold could be sold at prices ranging from the moon to the underworld, with the economic system remaining under the Brown system for a long time.
Accordingly, in 1863, the U.S. introduced the National Bank Act, establishing a number of national banks and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). However, it should be noted that the U.S. government did not deny other banks the qualification to issue banknotes but instead conducted targeted 'review' and supervision, similar to how the SEC reviews the 'securities issuance' qualifications of various cryptocurrencies; it does not deny your cryptocurrency issuance qualifications. The unique characteristics of American management are hidden in history.
At this point, the U.S. government began to intervene on a large scale in the dollar, until the economic crisis of 1907, where J.P. Morgan played the role of a savior. Thus, there was a hard power to perform with the U.S. government. In 1913, the Federal Reserve Act was enacted, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) was born, marking the complete end of the free dollar.
After Bitcoin goes mainstream.
Zhang Hua was admitted to Peking University, Li Ping entered a technical school, and I worked as a salesperson in a department store; we all have bright futures.
There are only two types of cryptocurrencies in the world: Bitcoin and others. In Trump's view, the dollar needs a new anchor, and Bitcoin would be a better anchor than U.S. Treasuries, at least it could serve as one of the support assets like gold. The only problem is that the price of Bitcoin cannot accommodate tens of trillions of liquidity. If each Bitcoin is worth one million dollars, it is more likely to be a devaluation of the dollar.
Let's do a simple math problem. The current scale of U.S. Treasury bonds is 35 trillion dollars, and the current Bitcoin circulation is around 19.1 million coins. Performing a simple division to solve the U.S. debt crisis, the price of a single Bitcoin needs to reach 1,832,460 dollars; the current 75,000 dollars is merely an appetizer, with a further increase of 24 times.
A more rational choice is that Bitcoin does not need to become a reserve like gold for the dollar; it only needs to solve the interest on U.S. Treasury bonds. According to estimates, the annual interest on U.S. Treasury bonds is around 1 trillion dollars, which is about half of the cryptocurrency market value, or roughly equal to the Bitcoin market value. However, this still requires the U.S. government to control all or most of the Bitcoin, and regardless of whether the U.S. government can achieve this, an illiquid asset has no value.
Currently, the U.S. government's Bitcoin holdings are around 1%. However, like J.P. Morgan's relationship with the Federal Reserve, most types of BTC ETFs have a U.S. capital background. If we count their 5.2% share plus Satoshi Nakamoto's passive locked-up 4.6%, then theoretically, the U.S. government has the ability to control or influence around 10% of the Bitcoin price, which already qualifies as a super whale.
Before 2034, there will be about 10 trillion dollars in U.S. Treasury bond interest. Considering that Trump's term only lasted 4 years, if Bitcoin can indeed serve as a dollar reserve, then it only needs to resolve an interest problem of around 5 trillion dollars. Therefore, the price of a single Bitcoin only needs to reach 261,780 dollars, which is about 3 times the current price. This is achievable as long as one adopts an attitude of 'after I die, let the deluge come.'
And the entire Web3 will also enter the American era. The last internet dividend bore the fruits of Silicon Valley; this time, it remains to be seen how it will unfold.

#BTC