Introduction to leeks-popular science
Understand the impact of spot, futures, and options on BTC prices
Let me tell you the conclusion first. The spot affects the current price, the futures affects the near term, and the options determine the forward. Futures and options will affect the spot price when delivery is approaching.
Whoever has the largest position size, custody volume and trading volume has the power to price BTC, which is currently controlled by three exchanges.
Spot market: #币安
Futures market: #CME、币安
Options market: #Deribit
The spot BTC off-chain spot market is susceptible to news events such as media reports, as this changes the short-term supply and demand relationship.
Therefore, the key to spot trading is to understand the cycle and trend of BTC
The futures market price will not only refer to the influence of BTC gold. The serial liquidation will further affect the spot price. #期货市场的爆仓等于要向市场平仓，继续上涨或下跌的动力没了就形成了支撑和阻力进一步影响价格并向现货传导 .
Therefore, the key to futures trading is to understand the long and short markets and clearing positions.
The option market price is actually a bet on the future price of BTC, which is mainly determined by the implied volatility and the hedging needs of both longs and shorts. It is actually a bet between longs and shorts on the future, and the rules follow statistical probability. The characteristics of options can be used to make forward bets at a very small cost. There is no need to worry about the risk of liquidation and it will not directly affect the spot price. However, when the option is close to the delivery date or the exercise price, it will be affected by the Gamma effect, delivery pressure, and arbitrage. Activities are transmitted to the spot. Of course, I think the most essential reason is that bookmakers can maximize their option profits by affecting the price of short-term spot. This is the same as match-fixing in football betting.
#所以做期权交易关键是搞懂隐含波动率，最大痛点，Greeks指标，分别从概率学、庄家思维和自身仓位风险 to think about the overall layout.
