Written by: Bu Shuqing, Wall Street News.
With the U.S. election settled, former President Trump has secured victory in advance. However, the biggest winner in this White House battle may not be Trump, but his major benefactor and 'trailblazer', Musk.
On November 6, local time, Musk's 'die-hard fan', Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, tweeted his unreserved optimism about Musk and Tesla.
The biggest beneficiary of Trump's victory will be Tesla/Musk.
We believe that Trump's victory is negative for the electric vehicle industry, as discounts/tax incentives for electric cars will be canceled, but the impact on Tesla is positive, as Tesla has a significant advantage in scale/price.
Trump's victory could boost Tesla's stock price by $40-50.
Tesla's market value has increased by $300 billion since its low point in April. Additionally, since Musk publicly expressed support for Trump on his social platform X, Google users' search interest in him has doubled. Analysts predict that this election will bring more car sales for Tesla, more advertising orders for X, and more support for Musk's American space exploration company (SpaceX).
The benefits don't stop there; after Trump's victory, Musk's political resources will be on a different level. In contrast, if Harris wins, as Musk has previously joked, he may end up in prison.
Since July of this year, Musk has officially joined Trump's camp, subsequently betting nearly all his fortune on Trump's victory, and three months later, this gamble finally paid off.
At this point, if you ask Musk how he feels, just look at the tweet he posted today.
The future looks very bright! (Musk also thoughtfully gave Trump a 'big rocket').
Tesla continues to open up imaginative possibilities.
Trump may accelerate the introduction of measures supporting autonomous driving technology once in office, which would be a major boon for Tesla, which emphasizes fully autonomous driving technology (FSD).
Additionally, Trump advocates for significantly raising tariffs, which could further limit the influx of affordable foreign electric vehicles into the U.S., thus helping Tesla maintain its leading position in the U.S. market (with a market share exceeding 50%).
It is worth mentioning that even if Harris wins the election, Tesla can still benefit, as the Democratic Party advocates for clean transportation.
Therefore, regardless of who wins, Tesla is a winner.
Before election day, Ives rated Tesla as 'outperforming the market', with a target price of $300, about 20% higher than Tesla's closing price on Tuesday.
According to the rating site Tipranks, Ives's views are supported by 10 other analysts, with another 16 analysts suggesting a hold rating and 8 analysts recommending a sell, resulting in Tesla receiving a general 'hold' rating.
One step closer to the 'Mars dream'.
From the perspective of the space market, Trump's victory is also very beneficial for Musk.
Musk has stated that under a Democratic administration, the possibility of SpaceX achieving the 'Mars dream' is slim, whereas under a Republican administration, the support that SpaceX could receive from government departments might be greater.
But regardless of the election result, NASA and SpaceX are closely interconnected.
According to federal records, since 2019, NASA has taken on nearly $10 billion in debt to SpaceX. However, if Harris takes office, she may not agree to take on such a large debt for SpaceX.
Political capital expands, Musk hints at a political career?
If Trump appoints Musk to a key position in the government, Musk could transform from a business giant into a political heavyweight.
Trump previously mentioned that if he returns to the White House, he would ask Musk to lead a Department of Government Efficiency. Musk later responded that if Trump is elected, he could find $2 trillion in budget cuts, which would fundamentally reshape government spending.
After today's election results, Musk posted a meme of himself 'holding a sink in the presidential office' on the X platform, captioning it 'Let it sink in' (with 'sink' having the dual meanings of a sink and to sink), strongly implying a political intention. In 2022, when Musk took over Twitter, he promised layoffs and entered the Twitter building holding a sink.
However, entering government departments also means that Musk may have to maintain a distance from Tesla and SpaceX. Without Musk at the helm, Tesla's value is bound to take a hit. Compared to the automotive business, Tesla's stock price rise relies more on Musk's 'big promises'. Additionally, unlike executives who can act at will, politicians have to deal with the mundane tasks of interacting with Congress, which even an energetic Musk may find overwhelming.
Historically, Musk's political career has not been smooth. The CEO advisory council during Trump's term lasted only six months. This council was established at the end of 2016, led by Stephen Schwarzman, chairman and CEO of Blackstone Group, and Musk was also a member.
Even if Musk gives up a government position, as Trump's 'number one contributor' to his victory, his political resources will rapidly ascend.