Author: Alex O’Donnell, CoinTelegraph; Translated by Bai Shui, Golden Finance
As voters flock to the polls on November 5, bettors are all in on the U.S. presidential election, with trading volume on major prediction markets nearing $4 billion.
Web3 native Polymarket has become the dominant political betting platform. According to the Polymarket website, despite being banned in the U.S., trading volume in the presidential campaign has exceeded $3.3 billion.
Emerging U.S. betting platforms—including Kalshi, Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers—have quickly gained attention since their launch in October.
According to the application websites, they have collectively attracted over $500 million in trading volume for the presidential election betting market.
Republican candidate Donald Trump leads Harris on top prediction platforms.
As of the time of publication on November 5, Polymarket estimates the odds of Trump winning at nearly 62%. According to the websites of these applications, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers estimate that ratio to be about 58%.
Source: Polymarket
Election betting markets allow users to purchase contracts with binary payout structures related to the outcomes of political events.
They discussed everything from the U.S. presidential campaign to Senate races, cabinet appointments, and even the possibility of New York City Mayor Eric Adams resigning.
The most popular contracts include bets on the popular vote and the winning candidate's odds.
According to an analysis of public data, these contracts have generated nearly $1 billion in cross-platform trading activity.
Source: Kalshi
Intense competition
On October 7, Kalshi listed betting contracts on the outcome of the U.S. election after winning a landmark court battle last September.
This marks the first time election prediction markets have been allowed to operate in the U.S., paving the way for other markets to enter the competition.
Since then, competition has become very fierce.
On October 28, the cryptocurrency and stock trading platform Robinhood launched contracts for certain users to bet on the presidential election results.
According to an article on platform X dated November 5, it has traded approximately 200 million contracts in the presidential campaign.
Interactive Brokers also launched election betting markets in October. Its presidential election market has attracted about $50 million in trading volume.
On October 28, Kalshi began accepting deposits in USD Coin stablecoin. Kalshi stated on X that on November 5, it added USDC deposits on the blockchain network Polygon.
Polymarket rules management for the spending in the 2024 U.S. presidential election prediction market. Source: Polymarket
Manipulation fear
In October, Polymarket faced criticism after several investigations revealed that about 30% of its U.S. presidential election bets came from fake trades, a method intended to artificially inflate trading volume.
Meanwhile, according to anonymous political gambler Doma, five major Polymarket investors are said to have purchased more than half of the bets, wagering on Trump's victory.
If the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC are uncertain about who the winner is, the payouts for presidential bettors on Polymarket may be delayed until January 20, 2025.
In September, Kalshi won a lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which questioned the regulator's decision to prohibit Kalshi from listing contracts on political events.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has stated that election prediction markets like Kalshi threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.
Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, stated in a comment letter submitted to the CFTC in August: 'Event contract markets are a valuable public good, with no evidence of significant manipulation or widespread use for any nefarious purposes as alleged by the commission.'
In August, financial data and news service Bloomberg LP added Polymarket's election odds data to its terminal.