The U.S. presidential election, which has attracted global attention, officially kicked off yesterday. Based on the ballot results, the Republican Party, represented by Trump, leads by more than 10% in most election areas. However, as long as the results are not announced, anything is possible.
Election phase timeline
November 5: Election voting begins
November 6 to December 11: Each state certifies election results
December 17: Electoral College meets to cast official votes
January 6, 2025: Congress holds final meeting to count and certify electoral votes
January 20, 2025: Elected President of the United States officially sworn in at the White House
Impact of election results on cryptocurrency
The essence of the U.S. election does not directly impact the cryptocurrency market; its effects depend on the elected person's stance and proposed policies, which can be temporary or long-lasting. It is undeniable that this U.S. election will have the greatest impact on global finance, economy, and even the cryptocurrency market in history.
Putting aside market noise, the share of the cryptocurrency market in this election is merely a series of 'empty promises' made by electors to attract votes from cryptocurrency market vested interests. Whether these promises can materialize remains a question mark. However, do people think they should? If they can materialize, it is certainly worth celebrating; but even if they cannot, the emotional effects they guide are enough for the cryptocurrency market to begin its own 'self-entertainment.' After all, in a market where emotion and narrative dominate, simple recognition is greater than everything.
From the current perspective of the electors, it can be seen that Trump’s faction, represented by Musk, are more or less vested interests of the cryptocurrency market. Their previous statements to garner votes have made a series of promises regarding the future of the cryptocurrency market. Thus, with Trump's election advantage continuing to grow, the cryptocurrency market has entered a unique 'Trump bullish market.' As the election continues to be tumultuous, its influence will further expand.
This is also the main trading logic of the current cryptocurrency market: The larger Trump's lead in votes, the greater the probability of victory, the more the market rises; if Trump's votes are leveled or Harris's winning probability increases, the market will fall.
So does the election of a certain candidate really determine the future trend of the cryptocurrency market? Not necessarily! First, throughout history, the promises made by presidents to garner votes have had variable effectiveness. Secondly, the initial results were not aimed at serving cryptocurrencies and do not provide direct anchoring; they are merely what the market seeks to speculate on. We just need to leverage this sentiment for profit.
Predict the market
Currently, Trump's advantage is significant. As his lead expands, the cryptocurrency market will continue to rise. If his election is confirmed, there will be a surge, but it won't be sustainable. The market must eventually focus on the fulfillment of promises; if the narrative falls flat, the coin prices will eventually revert. Conversely, if Harris is elected and the narrative fails, the cryptocurrency market will likely undergo a significant correction, but there will still be support below. After all, aside from the election, a new round of rate cuts is approaching, so sentiment remains bullish; however, everyone's anticipation of new highs will continue to be delayed.