This afternoon Beijing time, something big is coming. From the moment you open your eyes today, it is destined to be a day of high volatility for Bitcoin. It is still not very clear who will win between Trump and Harris, but whether in the prediction market or the small commodity market, there are strong results showing that Trump's chances of victory are somewhat greater. Currently, several swing states are gradually leaning towards Trump. In short, the results will be revealed in just a few hours, and the key is to develop our own trading strategy.
Let's first talk about short-term trading. Whoever is elected could potentially lead to a volatile situation; it’s just a matter of whether it goes up first or down first. This will be similar to the trends observed in previous interest rate cut meetings. The underlying logic is that the Republican Party places more emphasis on current support for Bitcoin, while the Democratic Party will more prudently increase liquidity in the long run. Thus, there will be repeated games in the market, leading to significant volatility, just like Powell's repetitive statements after each interest rate decision provide us future expectations. Old Yao predicts that a unilateral market trend of +10% or more is unlikely to occur, so short-term trading should still follow the oscillation range of major support and resistance levels for a higher success rate.
The resistance level is clearly at the historical high, while support levels at 65000 and 60000 will bring significant buying pressure.
Regarding the upcoming trend, it is self-evident; the trend is generally positive. If Trump is elected, it may first surge, then consolidate, and surge again. If Harris is elected, it may first consolidate and then move at a slow pace. I am discussing this trend on a monthly basis. Regardless of who is elected, it will only change the process, not the outcome, which is closely related to the governing strategies and directions of the two parties. The future will not be unchanging.
