Author: Alex Liu, Foresight News.

Legendary trader GCR was last active on social media on April 14 this year, when the market experienced a significant drop, and he posted a bullish outlook for the future, with the market nearly hitting the bottom simultaneously. This may just be a coincidence, but it highlights his strong personal influence.

As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, GCR finally posted again, but this time it was not related to crypto: "The result of the 2000 election was ultimately determined by a margin of 537 votes (48.847% to 48.838%). Although it is unlikely that 2024 will be this close, I still encourage everyone to vote tomorrow (whether you vote for the Republican or Democratic party)."

Someone commented in the comments section: "I'm not joking, all my assets are betting on Trump's victory based on GCR's predictions. If I get liquidated, I will privately message for a refund."

The election result has long become a tradable asset; which side is GCR betting on? What is the prediction that GCR has according to the aforementioned netizen?

It turns out that as early as 2021, GCR @GiganticRebirth had posted that:

"One of my most confident trades, TRUMP2024.

FTX has serious liquidity issues, so since around 0.10 / 10c (10 cents for 1 share, if ultimately victorious, 1 share will be worth $1), we have been accumulating positions through Alameda OTC and other sources.

The biggest risk of this trade is (Trump) suffering a heart attack; otherwise, it is destined to rise to $0.65.

On July 4, 2022, he directly stated:

Looking back now, this series of operations feels like cheating, predicting the future three years in advance. (He probably also reads Foresight News).

Trump successfully secured the Republican nomination, while DeSantis went to zero. In the presidential election market, Trump's victory odds peaked at 0.7, just above his predicted 0.65, achieving a 7x return. How was this done?

The highest probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is 71.5%.

GCR replied to the comment mentioned above yesterday, reviewing this trade and stated that he has "taken profit."

See the full response below:

"I have seen this sentiment many times; as always, I advise against using leverage and engaging in reckless gambling.

As traders, our job is to think about possibilities and find the greatest discrepancies between expectations and accurate pricing.

In 2021, I was deeply convinced of two predictions.

(1) DeSantis (will not secure the Republican candidacy), because the front runner is a paper tiger, and the likelihood of Trump becoming the actual Republican candidate is over 95%.

(2) Predicting that the market will exhibit a right-wing bias (as I observed in Trump's odds in 2020); therefore, the expected pricing for the eventual Republican nominee (whoever gets the nomination) will rise to 65 cents (please refer to my pinned tweet, which has recognized 0.65 since 2021).

Therefore, buying Trump at a price below 10% is the maximization of value, because I know if my bearish argument on DeSantis is correct, then the odds will rise above 65% (and buying other proxy bets related to Trump's undervalued odds).

Both predictions came true (Trump won the Republican nomination, and the price of his victory share reached 65 cents), I am very satisfied, I have grasped the essence of this trend and taken profit from my positions and proxy bets, as most of the delta expectations and reality have already materialized.

Now we are waiting to see if there will be a fair election.

And to what extent has GCR's influence reached? Just 20 hours ago, a whale withdrew $500,000 from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory, and one minute after GCR's post titled "taken profit" and "waiting to see if there will be a fair election," he began to sell off his positions, liquidating all of his more than $3 million bets on Trump's victory within an hour.

Is GCR implying that as long as the election is fair, Trump will win? Will his bets continue to be accurate? We look forward to a positive answer, after all, he also said that ETH will eventually rise to $10,000.