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Jim Cramer's Analysis Spurs Speculation of Trump Victory Due to "Inverse Cramer" Effect
On Monday, November 4, television personality Jim Cramer commented on recent stock market trends, suggesting investor confidence in a potential victory for Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. While Cramer noted, โIโm not sure the marketโs right about what a Harris presidency would mean for business,โ his remarks sparked widespread speculation of a Trump win due to the โinverse Cramerโ effectโa phenomenon in which outcomes often run contrary to Cramerโs predictions.
Growing Political Significance for Cryptocurrency
Cramerโs prediction comes amid rising political focus on cryptocurrency, marking the 2024 election as the first where digital assets are a central issue. The โinverse Cramerโ effect has previously led to the creation of an ETF aimed at profiting from shorting his stock picks, although it closed within 10 months with a negative 15% return, showing Cramerโs forecasts are not always off-target.
Polymarket Odds and High-Stakes Bets on Trump
Polymarket odds shifted in favor of Trump on October 4, with Trump leading by over 10 points by October 12, as reported by Cointelegraph. On November 5, large investors, or โwhales,โ continued to place high-stakes bets on Trump. One investor, identified as โwalletmobile,โ deposited nearly $5 million in USD Coin (USDC) on Polymarket to support Trump, with $2.8 million already staked. Another whale, โzxgngl,โ Polymarketโs largest Trump supporter, withdrew an additional $3.1 million in USDC for similar bets on election day.
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