As of now, the probability of Trump and Harris winning is very close, making it difficult to determine who is more likely to win. Here are some influencing factors:
1. Poll support rates:
• Overall support rate is nearly even: A final pre-election poll by NBC shows Trump and Harris tied in support at 49% each, with only 2% of voters undecided on who to vote for. This close support rate indicates that both sides have similar influence and support group sizes nationwide.
• Support rates in swing states have their advantages: The competition between the two in key 'swing states' is also very intense. Different poll results show some discrepancies, but overall, Harris has had a slight lead in some swing states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin; while Trump has an advantage in some polls in Arizona, Georgia, as well as parts of North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
2. Campaign strategies:
• Trump: Emphasizes populist appeals, attracting voters' resonance by stressing the slogan 'Make America Great Again,' blaming illegal immigration for economic problems, and claiming traditional values are under threat. He communicates directly with voters through large-scale rallies and social media, which successfully mobilizes his core supporters but may alienate moderate voters in key swing states.
• Harris: Adopts a more inclusive campaigning style, trying to unite a diverse Democratic coalition. Her campaign emphasizes policies like healthcare reform, climate change, social equity, and racial justice, aiming to attract independent voters and dissatisfied Republican voters. She interacts with voters through town halls and policy forums, emphasizing grassroots organization and community outreach.
3. Campaign activities:
• Trump: Has participated in over 900 rallies this year, and in the final stages of the election, his schedule is packed, almost entirely in key swing states, from the 'Rust Belt' of Michigan and Wisconsin to the southern states of North Carolina and Georgia, tirelessly traveling and speaking to try to gain more votes at the last moment.
• Harris: Actively campaigning in swing states and holding some large rallies, such as a significant gathering on the White House lawn, and has received support from some celebrities.
4. External factors:
• Supporters: Notable wealthy supporters of Harris include Bill Gates, Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, and Bloomberg founder Michael Bloomberg; notable wealthy supporters of Trump include banking tycoon Tim Mellon, entrepreneur Elon Musk, and casino magnate widow Miriam Adelson. Both sides have certain financial and resource support behind them.
• Impact of international situation: Current international events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas conflict, may also affect voter attitudes. Trump and Harris have differing positions on foreign policy; for instance, regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, Harris supports continued U.S. aid to Ukraine, while Trump calls for peace through negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.