Written by: Alex Liu, Foresight News
Legendary trader GCR was last active on social media on April 14 this year, when the market saw a significant drop. He posted a bullish outlook for the future, and the market almost simultaneously hit bottom. This may just be a coincidence, but it also highlights his strong personal influence.
Time has quickly arrived at the eve of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and GCR has finally posted again, but this time it's unrelated to crypto: 'The outcome of the 2000 election was ultimately decided by a margin of 537 votes (48.847% to 48.838%). Although it's unlikely that 2024 will be this close, I still encourage everyone to vote tomorrow (whether you vote for the Republican or the Democrat).'
A commenter in the section said: 'I'm not joking, all my assets are betting on GCR's prediction for Trump to win. If I get liquidated, I will privately message to request a refund.'
The election results have long become a tradable asset; which side is GCR betting on? What is the prediction from GCR mentioned by the commenter?
It turns out that as early as 2021, GCR @GiganticRebirth posted:
'One of my most confident trades, TRUMP2024
FTX's liquidity was severely insufficient, so we have been accumulating positions through Alameda OTC and other sources since around 0.10 / 10c (10 cents per share, where if ultimately successful, 1 share will be worth 1 dollar).
The biggest risk of this trade is (Trump) having a heart attack, otherwise it is destined to rise to $0.65.
On July 4, 2022, he posted frankly:
Looking back now, this series of operations seems like cheating, foreseeing the future three years in advance. (He probably also follows Foresight News)
Trump successfully secured the Republican nomination, and DeSantis became irrelevant. In the presidential election market, Trump's victory odds peaked at 0.7, just slightly above his predicted 0.65, achieving a 7-fold return. How did this happen?
The highest probability of Trump's victory on Polymarket is 71.5%.
GCR responded yesterday to the comment mentioned above, reviewing this trade and stating that it 'has taken profits.'
See the full response below:
'I've seen this kind of sentiment many times; as always, I advise against using leverage and engaging in reckless gambling.'
As traders, our job is to think about possibilities and find the largest discrepancies between expectations and accurate pricing.
In 2021, I was firmly convinced of both predictions.
(1) DeSantis (will not secure the Republican nomination), because the front runner is a paper tiger, and the possibility of Trump becoming the actual Republican candidate is over 95%.
(2) The prediction market will show a right-wing bias (as I observed in Trump's odds in 2020); therefore, the expected pricing of the ultimate Republican nominee (whoever gets the nomination) will rise to 65 cents (please refer to my pinned tweet, which has been affirming 0.65 since 2021);
Therefore, buying Trump at less than 10% odds is the best way to maximize value, because I know if my bearish argument on DeSantis is correct, the odds will rise to over 65% (as well as buying other bets related to Trump being undervalued)
Both predictions came true (Trump won the Republican nomination, and his victory share price reached 65 cents), I feel very satisfied, I have grasped the essence of this trend and taken profits from my positions and proxy bets, as most of the delta between expectations and reality has been realized;
Now we wait to see if there will be a fair election.
And to what extent does GCR's influence reach? Just 20 hours ago, a whale withdrew $500,000 from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory. After GCR's post titled 'Have taken profits,' 'Waiting to see if there will be a fair election' was published, the whale began selling off their positions just one minute later and cleared out their entire over $3 million bet on Trump’s victory within an hour.
Is GCR implying that as long as the election is fair, Trump will win? Will his bets continue to be accurate? We look forward to a positive answer, after all, he also said ETH will eventually rise to $10,000.
