Cryptocurrency Users Spent $3 Billion on US Elections
The total volume of bets on the US election winner on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has exceeded $3 billion.
Republican candidate Donald Trump accounts for $1.2 billion of this volume, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’s betting volume is $782.5 million. The platform’s winning odds are set at 56.3 percent for Trump and 43.8 percent for Harris; Trump’s winning odds dropped by more than 10 percent over the weekend.
This prediction market on Polymarket first passed the $1 billion threshold on September 24, and surpassed $2 billion on October 17. The US presidential election has contributed greatly to Polymarket’s rapid growth in recent months. Polymarket’s trading volume increased by 368 percent monthly between September and October. The platform, which reached a monthly trading volume of $2.5 billion in October, broke a record with almost 235,300 active users.
Following the increased interest, Robinhood Derivatives also launched event contracts in late October that allow betting on the results of the 2024 US presidential election. This development further increased user interest in prediction markets.
Polymarket made a statement last week about how the winning market will turn out. Polymarket stated that when the winner of the election is determined, the market will be resolved if the Associated Press (AP), Fox News and NBC News announce the same candidate. Polymarket also made a statement, “In the event of a possible dispute, the candidate who takes office at the inauguration ceremony on January 20, 2025 will be taken as basis.”
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