On November 5 (Tuesday), the United States will usher in the quadrennial election day. The voting results on this day will determine the direction of the US political situation in the next four years.

As the world's largest economy, the election of the future leader of the United States will undoubtedly attract the attention of the world. However, the global "spectators" should be prepared in advance that the results of this election will most likely not be announced on the election day or the next day, but may take several days to be announced.

So, when will the results of this election be announced? If we analyze it carefully, this may be a very complicated question.

Voting times vary by state in the U.S.

Generally speaking, most states in the United States will start counting votes immediately after voting ends on Election Day. However, due to the vast territory of the United States, which spans multiple time zones from east to west, the end time of election voting in different states is also different.

This means that sometimes, when the vote counting results in the eastern states of the United States are already released, some western states have not even finished voting.

Here are the closing times for polling stations in each U.S. state.

(The bolded states in the table are key swing states)

Although all states in the United States will hold elections, according to previous media polls, the election situation in most states of the United States can be predicted in advance, and the seven swing states will truly determine the final election results.

Seven swing states in the United States

The seven swing states are Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia and Michigan.

As can be seen from the table above, the voting ends later in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, which means that their vote counting results may be released later.

The rules for counting votes vary from state to state in the U.S.

Further complicating the situation are the different rules for counting votes in each state.

For example, tens of millions of people have already voted in advance by mail-in ballots or in-person voting before Election Day, while in states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, local laws do not allow millions of mail-in ballots to be counted in advance before Election Day, which means that the counting of votes in these two states will be slower.

For example, Nevada, one of the key swing states this time, allows mail-in ballots to be delivered no later than 5 p.m. on November 9, which means that if the election in the state is deadlocked, the final vote count in the state may not be clear until several days after election day.

Trey Grayson, former president of the National Association of Secretaries of State, said that after voting ends on Election Day, the timing of ballot counting may vary across the country: "We have 50 states, plus Washington, D.C., and our vote counting practices are almost all different."

Grayson said that could mean "in a very close election, it's almost impossible for us to know on election night who's going to be president or who's going to control the House or the Senate."

Final results may take several days to come out

If the election is one-sided, it is possible that the winner will be determined the day after election day.

For example, if Trump or Harris can sweep several eastern swing states with a large number of electoral votes, such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, at the same time, we may be able to determine the election results early the day after Election Day.

But considering that the polls in seven swing states are so close, if we refer to the situation in the last election, we need to be prepared in advance: it may take several days to determine the results of this election.

Election situation in key swing states in the United States (poll support data as of October 28)

In the last election, due to the close situation in swing states, state officials took four days to count all the votes: after the voting ended on November 3, Biden was not officially declared the winner until the counting results in Pennsylvania were fully released on November 7.

This time, given that Trump and Harris are closer in the polls, it may take longer to count the votes.

Vote counting may still face challenges

To make matters worse, the Republican Party has launched hundreds of pre-election lawsuits and legal challenges across the United States, including questioning the fairness of the election and accusing non-citizens of being allowed to participate in federal elections, which may make the vote counting more difficult.

For example, the Republicans have launched a legal challenge in Georgia, requiring local polling station staff to manually count votes (instead of machine counting) to ensure the fairness of the counting results - but this will undoubtedly greatly reduce the efficiency of the counting work. The Georgia court is currently debating this request initiated by the Republicans, and voting rights organizations have warned that if manual counting is really adopted, it is likely to cause greater chaos.

In addition, although voting day has not officially arrived, a number of extreme remarks and conspiracy theories about the fairness of voting have emerged on American social platforms, which means that the final counting results are likely to be questioned and may even breed violence - we have seen this four years ago.

Election experts say that if people doubt the election results, there may be a wave of denials in countless courts in states and localities across the United States, triggering a widespread recount - which may also delay the production of official election results.

In addition, some states may automatically trigger a recount if the election is very close. Take Pennsylvania, for example, where state law stipulates that if the total vote difference between the winner and loser is only 0.5 percentage points, it will automatically trigger a statewide recount.

According to a June survey by the World Justice Project, an independent research organization, 46% of Republican respondents said they would not accept the legitimacy of the election results if the Democratic candidate won, and 14% of Republicans said they would take action to overturn the election results if the Democratic candidate won.

This means that if Trump loses in this presidential election, it may be a problem whether the Republican Party is willing to admit defeat and whether the US government can achieve a peaceful transfer of power in January next year.