Written by: Huang Shiliang
The announcement of the next U.S. president is imminent, and recently the reactions in major global capital markets have been very intense, including U.S. stocks and crypto, especially the response in the crypto circle.
From the sentiment expressed online, it seems that the crypto circle is particularly afraid of Trump's defeat. I feel this is completely unnecessary.
The biggest feature of the American system is the separation of powers; a president can do many things, but it's hard to bring about earth-shattering changes.
Trump has been bullish on crypto in recent months, making all sorts of exaggerated statements, claiming he wants to turn the U.S. into a paradise for cryptocurrencies. But can these be taken seriously? It's more rational to remain skeptical.
For example, Trump said he wants to treat BTC as a part of America's strategic reserves. This... even the gold reserves in the U.S. are not decided by the president. If you still believe America is a market economy, then gold reserves must be based on economic and financial stability considerations. How could it be left to the president to decide?
If a president could decide to include Bitcoin in the strategic reserves, what do we need the Treasury and the Federal Reserve for? What do we need Congress for?
If Trump is really that powerful, why doesn't he just appoint himself president? Why even have an election?
That is, Trump is talking about Bitcoin. If he were talking about a certain stock, the SEC would probably sue him for market manipulation.
Just look at the ban on TikTok in the U.S. During Trump's last term, he wanted to kill TikTok, and the Biden administration also has this intention, but there is still no clear outcome. This is just handling one company; it's not something a president can decide alone. Count the games involved: presidential executive orders, national security reviews, congressional discussions, and multiple court interventions; the final decision-making power is dispersed among multiple departments. The president's decision-making power is indeed limited.
This has to be said to be a merit of the American system; the change of presidential office will not lead to nationwide policy and livelihood issues undergoing drastic changes.
Looking at Chinese history, one of the biggest problems with over 2000 years of imperial rule is the issue of succession. The current American system of succession is very worthy of learning.
Are crypto enthusiasts watching too many palace dramas, thinking that changing a president could have earth-shattering effects on the crypto world?
Ah, if we keep talking, it will turn into U.S. praise.
Additionally, I think Trump looks quite unseemly in the crypto circle.
On Opensea, a total of four NFT projects directly related to Trump can be found, all of which have serious ties to Trump. Buying these NFTs can provide special benefits, such as a part of Trump's debate suit, attending dinners at golf clubs, etc. These NFTs are all, without exception, garbage.
And just last month, the Trump family launched a DeFi project, WLF, hoping it won't be left unfinished this time.
If anyone else were to issue these projects, they would probably be scolded in the crypto circle, but he, as president, taking some benefits from the crypto circle, could be seen as the industry paying him advertising fees. However, I think this advertising fee is very well spent. Trump is undoubtedly the top influencer in today's world; getting a few million from the crypto circle in exchange for a few compliments about crypto is a great deal for the crypto world.
Given his enthusiastic advertising for the crypto circle, if he were president, it should be a positive influence for the crypto circle.
Including Musk, many people claim that if Harris is elected, the stocks will crash, there will be economic disasters, and World War 3 will occur. Conversely, if Trump is in office for three days, everyone will achieve wealth and prosperity.
Oh, on Valentine's Day, men shouldn't make promises like that; they'll get struck by lightning.
From the perspective of actual economic effects, Biden has been quite friendly towards cryptocurrencies; he is not just bragging. Although he is a bit senile, during his term, the launch of BTC and ETH ETFs did happen, and BTC reached a new high.
The U.S. stock market performed very well during Biden's term.
As Biden's vice president, Harris is more likely to continue Biden's policies.
Why do netizens say that if Harris takes office, the crypto prices will plummet? I really don't believe it.
My point is not that who gets elected has no impact on the crypto circle; I just feel it can't produce extreme effects. A slight increase in normal market volatility is normal.
Compared to the short-term impact of a president taking office, the more important influencing factor is whether the overall economy of the U.S. and the global economy can continue to improve.
No matter who is elected, what truly affects the trends in the crypto market and other capital markets are the fundamental economic conditions in the U.S., including inflation levels, employment data, interest rate policies, and international economic situations. These economic factors determine market liquidity and investors' risk appetite, not a single political leader. Therefore, focusing on macroeconomic trends is key to judging the long-term trends of the market, rather than being fixated on the short-term fluctuations brought by a change in leadership.
Finally, for entertainment, let's guess the election results.
I guess Trump will win.
My reasoning is: Musk is too far-sighted.
When Musk bought Twitter two years ago, he announced the purchase in April 2022, and it was finalized in October. I thought Musk had changed, that he was no longer great; he used to do things that no one else would do. He should be bragging about going to Mars, but now he wants to spend almost his entire fortune buying Twitter, a social product that has long been a battleground for entrepreneurs. This is so mediocre.
At that time, I thought he was buying Twitter for greater influence.
But this year is the U.S. presidential election year, and X.com has become the center of the campaign game, becoming Musk's biggest political capital (which is probably also one of Trump's biggest political capitals).
I started laying out this plan two years ago, spending almost my entire fortune on it; this can be said to be a (half) desperate gamble.
Just thinking about it feels impressive.
Looking back now, spending $40 billion to buy X, which has now become the world's largest political topic stage, Musk has won big. This business is much more successful than bragging about going to Mars.
Compared to Musk's actions, I think the current president Biden and his current candidate Harris, due to the previous job swap incident, cannot possibly have a similar long-term layout.
So, I think Trump will win.
