GCR returns after half a year, reviewing its betting logic on Trump with a 7x return over 3 years; 'has taken profit' triggered panic selling among whales.
Written by: Alex Liu, Foresight News
Legendary trader GCR was last active on social media on April 14 this year, when the market saw a sharp decline, and he posted bullish views on future trends, with the market almost hitting bottom simultaneously. This may just be a coincidence, but it also highlights his strong personal influence.
As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, GCR finally posts again, but this time it has nothing to do with crypto: 'The outcome of the 2000 election was ultimately decided by a vote difference of 537 (48.847% to 48.838%). Although it is unlikely that 2024 will be this close, I still encourage everyone to vote tomorrow (whether you vote for the Republican or Democratic party).'
Someone commented in the section: 'I'm not joking, all my assets are going long on Trump's victory based on GCR's predictions. If I get liquidated, I will privately message for a refund.'
The election results have already become a tradable asset; which side is GCR betting on? What is the prediction from GCR mentioned by the above netizen?
It turns out that as early as 2021, GCR @GiganticRebirth posted:
One of my most confident trades, TRUMP2024
FTX has a severe liquidity shortage, so we have been accumulating positions through Alameda OTC and other sources since around $0.10 / 10c (10 cents for 1 share, which would be worth $1 if it ultimately wins)
The biggest risk of this trade is (Trump) suffering a heart attack, otherwise, it is destined to rise to $0.65.
On July 4, 2022, he posted bluntly:
Looking back, this series of operations seems like a cheat, foreseeing the future three years in advance. (He probably also follows Foresight News)
Trump successfully secured the Republican nomination, while DeSantis fell to zero. In the presidential election market, Trump's victory odds peaked at 0.7, just above the predicted 0.65, achieving a 7x return. How was this done?
The highest probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is 71.5%.
GCR responded yesterday to the comments mentioned above, reviewing this trade and stating that it 'has taken profit.'
See the full response below:
I've seen this sentiment many times; as always, I advise against using leverage and making reckless bets.
As traders, our job is to think about possibilities and find the maximum discrepancy between expectations and accurate pricing.
In 2021, I was convinced of two predictions
(1) DeSantis (will not secure the Republican nomination) because the front-runner is a paper tiger, and the possibility of Trump becoming the actual Republican nominee is over 95%.
(2) The prediction market will exhibit a rightward bias (as I observed in Trump's odds in 2020); therefore, the expected pricing of the eventual Republican nominee (whoever gets the nomination) will rise to $0.65 (please refer to my pinned tweet, which has identified $0.65 since 2021).
Therefore, buying Trump at less than 10% is maximizing value, because I know that if my bearish argument against DeSantis is correct, the odds will rise above 65% (and purchase other proxy bets related to Trump's underestimated odds).
Both of these predictions were realized (Trump won the Republican nomination, and the price of his winning share reached $0.65), I feel very satisfied, I have grasped the essence of this trend and taken profits from my positions and proxy bets, as most of the Delta expectations and realities have been realized.
Now we wait to see if there will be a fair election.
And to what extent has GCR's influence reached? Just 20 hours ago, a whale withdrew $500,000 from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory, and just one minute after GCR's post about 'taking profit' and 'waiting to see if there will be a fair election', started selling off their positions, clearing out their entire $3 million bet on Trump's victory within an hour.
Is GCR implying that as long as the election is fair, Trump will win? Will his bets continue to be accurate? We look forward to a positive answer, after all, he also said ETH will eventually rise to $10,000.
