Recently, Toncoin (TON) has experienced a decline of about 10% in the past 30 days, falling from a high of $5.54 to $4.76, clearly in a significant difficult moment. As the native cryptocurrency of Telegram, Toncoin has been going through a tough period, and market confidence in it seems to have wavered. However, after my in-depth analysis, I believe the current situation is not as pessimistic. In fact, Toncoin seems to be approaching a key support area, and there are signs that it may avoid a deeper decline and even possibly welcome a rebound.

On-chain data provides strong support for Toncoin

I noticed a very important on-chain indicator—the In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP)—is crucial for us to assess Toncoin's potential. IOMAP can provide information about investors' profits and losses at different price ranges. When on-chain data shows that a large number of addresses are in profit, it usually indicates that these investors have a strong motivation to hold, which also provides potential support for Toncoin.

According to IOMAP data, approximately 2.44 million addresses bought nearly 600 million TON tokens between $4.69 and $4.84, and these addresses are currently in profit. This data gives me reason to believe that there is strong support for Toncoin in this price range. Therefore, if the market continues to maintain buying enthusiasm, Toncoin's price may find some support, and it may even break through the $5 mark again.

Money Flow Index (MFI) breaks through 50, indicating increased buying interest

Additionally, I noticed that the Money Flow Index (MFI) recently broke through the 50.00 mark, indicating that market interest in purchasing Toncoin is on the rise. The MFI, as an indicator of market buying and selling pressure, typically means that buying power begins to dominate when it breaks above 50. This signal makes me feel that Toncoin may have a chance for a rebound.

In the past few weeks, the rise in the Money Flow Index indicates that more market participants are increasing their purchases of Toncoin, creating favorable conditions for price increases. Considering Toncoin's recent support levels and the trend of the MFI, I believe it may welcome a strong rebound in the coming weeks.

$4.67 support level provides strong support for Toncoin

From a technical chart perspective, Toncoin has formed solid support at the $4.67 support level. This support level helped Toncoin achieve a 24% increase in September, avoiding further losses and ultimately pushing the price up to around $5.80. I believe that this support level can still effectively help Toncoin avoid larger declines.

If the market generates enough buying pressure at this key support level, Toncoin is expected to continue its rebound, potentially rising to $5.78, close to the resistance area of $5.80. This target price range may be worth paying attention to for short-term investors.

Risk: Losing the $4.76 support level could trigger further downside

Of course, market trends do not always go as we wish. If Toncoin fails to find enough support near the current support level, especially if the critical support level of $4.76 is breached, it may face greater downward pressure. In this case, Toncoin's price could drop to around $4.45, which is a risk that market participants need to be wary of.

Summary: The future of Toncoin still holds potential

Overall, although Toncoin has suffered a 10% loss in the short term, based on on-chain data and technical chart analysis, I believe it is entering a key support range with strong support forces. The rebound in the Money Flow Index (MFI) also signals a potential rebound. If Toncoin can successfully hold the current support level and buying continues to flow in, it is likely to achieve a rebound in the coming weeks, with a target price expected to surpass $5.78.

However, market risks still exist, especially if the $4.76 support level is breached, we may see Toncoin facing a deeper adjustment. Therefore, as an investor, I believe that maintaining a cautious attitude while closely monitoring support levels and fund flows will be a wise choice to respond to market fluctuations.