Donald Trump's 'Yes' votes on the leading decentralized prediction market are largely controlled by a few mysterious entities as political bettors place millions of dollars on votes ahead of the U.S. election.
According to anonymous political bettor Domer, more than 50% of Trump's shares have been bought by five whales or large investors. Domer wrote in a post on October 31 on X that: This could yield a bonus of over $81 million for these whales:
"Trump Yes shares have a very high concentration. 5 fat cat accounts own 50% of the 162 million shares -- including Le Giga Whale with nearly 1/3 held by him. Those 5 would receive $81 million if Trump wins."
In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris's shares are more widely distributed, with her top five shareholders holding 18% of her 'Yes' votes. Harris's largest shareholder holds only 4.4% of her shares, while Trump's top shareholder controls 29.1%, Domer added.
This revelation comes just days before the U.S. presidential election, an event that is becoming the focal point for cryptocurrency investors as it could shape the legal landscape of the industry for the next four years.
Domer told Cointelegraph that at least four of the top six bettors for Trump, including accounts 'zxgngl' and 'Fredi9999', may be controlled by the same entity with strong confidence in Trump's victory:
"I guess it's someone who really believes, very wealthy and trying to make a big bet. He is becoming more confident as prices rise and is in a confirmation bias loop, where new information continuously increases his confidence."
Trump continues to lead, but polling results vary.
Despite some volatility over the weekend, Trump still leads on the leading decentralized betting market, Polymarket.
According to Polymarket data, Trump's winning odds in the presidential election are currently at 56.9%, while Harris's are at 43%.
However, Trump's lead advantage is smaller in other betting markets. On Kalshi, 54% of bettors are expecting Trump's victory, while 46% have voted for Harris.
However, traditional polling systems paint a completely different picture. Harris's winning odds in the presidential election are 49% compared to Trump's 48%, according to the nationwide average polling rates from The New York Times.
According to billionaire Elon Musk, decentralized prediction markets can make predictions more accurately than traditional polling systems because investors are voting with their savings.
Polymarket's odds flipped in favor of Trump on October 4, marking a strong reversal from September. By October 12, Trump was ahead by more than 10 points, Cointelegraph reported.
Bitcoin investors take profits as Trump's odds fluctuate.
The volatility in Polymarket's odds, combined with Harris's new lead in traditional polling systems, has led to some profit-taking moves.
According to Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, this is the main reason why Bitcoin (BTC) is adjusting. He told Cointelegraph:
"Last weekend, newly released polls showed Harris narrowly leading 2–3%. With Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance and ambition to position America as a leading nation in digital assets, his potential loss is seen as a short- to mid-term setback to Bitcoin's growth potential. This political shift has contributed to recent profit-taking, reinforcing Bitcoin's ongoing price correction."
Some analysts have called Bitcoin's October price action a "Trump pump," as its price increase seems correlated with Trump's increasing odds of winning the presidency. Bitcoin's price rose above $73,600 on October 29, reaching its highest level since March 2024, just $200 shy of a new all-time high.
However, other analysts believe that the current price increase is simply a "Trump hedge" that lacks the fundamental macroeconomic conditions to reach new record highs after the election on November 5.
