BTC：

Macro：

1. This week's focus is mainly on the US presidential election on November 5th and the interest rate decision on November 8th, while other data has relatively less impact against the backdrop of major events.

US Election：

The US election has entered the final sprint stage, with increasing competition between the Democratic and Republican parties. Previous data showed that Trump was far ahead of Harris with over 60% support, but recent polls indicate that the two are nearly tied. The interpretation of poll data reflected in prices is as follows:

Trump's poll data peaked at 67%, with BTC reaching a historical high of around 73776, but during the pullback, there was significant positive impact from non-farm payrolls, yet the price continued to drop. The culprits of the decline are as follows: US media exposed the platform's suspected wash trading, leading to a rapid drop in its win rate. Despite BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF experiencing the largest single-day net inflow, the panic caused by the former largest crypto exchange Mt.Gox dumping assets.

Currently, attention needs to be paid to the performance of different factions in swing states. According to market news reports, Trump is leading Harris in 7 swing states; on the surface, he has a greater probability of winning, but until the official results are announced, the uncertainty risk is gradually increasing, and caution is required.

2. According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 98%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 1.1%. Given the highly consistent market expectations and the recent rise, one should beware of the risk of buying on expectations and selling on facts.

3. In terms of data, the BTC spot ETF overall still shows significant net inflow status. As Trump is defined as a pro-crypto president, his poll data still has a considerable winning margin, and the market's expectation of his winning probability has increased, leading to optimism about the future of cryptocurrencies.